Fuzzy Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electronic Waste Recycling

近年由於科技發展迅速，產品推陳出新的速度越來越快，致使產品汰換週期也隨之縮短，造成大量廢棄物，導致國家社會需負擔相當大的環境成本。隨著環保意識抬頭，環保概念成為社會所重視的話題，許多國際環境法規應運而生，回收產業更相繼崛起。國外大型企業，早在10多年前即著手發展逆向供應鏈，並從中獲取相當程度之利益；反觀國內目前回收產業，係由中、小型回收商以及清潔隊從事，大型製造商則興趣缺缺，其關鍵在於逆向供應鏈的不確定性是企業所擔憂的。因此需要一套評估方法，讓企業瞭解有沒有建構逆向物流的必要性。以往回收相關研究很多，但大多都是侷限於線性規畫的應用，本研究則是以製造商的觀點，建構成本效益分析模型通式，並配合模糊理論處理非確定變數中之模糊數值，來評估國內大型製造商是否值得對廢電子、電機與資訊產品回收產業進行投資。本研究以台灣電腦主機回收為數值案例，經過實際與回收商、清潔隊、資源回收商訪談獲得專家知識，整理這些專家知識，取得模型中各變數相關資訊，再代入模型中計算，得到國內大型製造業進駐回收產業是具有龐大利益，並利用線性迴歸法預測未來回收量，再將之帶入模型計算，得知未來淨效益成長亦很可觀，這還不包含回收技術的成長等等。製造商從事回收產業，不僅計算出之內部效益，尚有無法量化之外部效益，且回收單項產品即有如此利潤，而製造商出產之產品種類繁多，相加的利益之大可見一斑。In recent years, owing to the acceleration of technological development, the speed of updating technological products becomes faster and faster. Customers'' frequent renew of products results in large numbers of electronic wastes. The society has to pay considerable amount of environmental cost as well. The consciousness of environmental protection has therefore been emphasized, and the concept of cherishing our surroundings has been promoted. International environmental protection laws have been issued as well. The recycling industry has been gaining power accordingly. In fact, several famous foreign companies have been engaging in reversed supply chains and profited a lot from them for more than ten years However, domestically, only a few small to meddle-size companies as well as government cleaning teams engage in recycling work at the present. One major reason is that ventures worry about the uncertainty of reversed supply chains. To overcome this drawback, it is important to construct an estimation model to let companies or enterprises evaluate whether it is worthy to engage in reversed supply chains. Based on the viewpoint of manufacturers, this study proposes a cost-benefit analytical model and employs fuzzy theory to evaluate whether a domestic manufacture is worthy to invest in recycling business. The recycling of PC hosts is used as a numerical example. Through interviews with recycling businessmen, clean team members and resources recycling businessmen, relevant information is obtained and incorporated into the proposed model. A linear regressive analysis is also carried out for the purpose of forecast. The result indicates that domestic PC manufactures will hold large benefits from their recycling investments.致謝I文摘要II文摘要III錄IV目錄VII目錄VIII號說明IX一章 緒論1.1 研究背景與動機1.2 研究目的4.3 研究限制5.4 研究流程6.5 論文架構7二章 文獻探討8.1 供應鏈管理8.1.1 供應鏈管理的介紹與定義8.1.2 供應鏈管理的目標和目的10.2 物流相關的定義10.3 逆向物流的涵義11.3.1 逆向物流的特性13.3.2 逆向物流產生原因與相關問題13.3.3 逆向物流的戰略與經濟價值16.4 成本效益分析20.4.1 成本效益分析的介紹20.4.2 成本效益分析的涵義21.4.3 成本效益分析的相關研究21三章 研究方法23.1 成本效益分析23.2 產品拆解策略25.3 模型建構27.3.1 模型建構27.3.1.1 環保補助總額28.3.1.2 販售至二手市場總效益29.3.1.3 有價原料回收總效益30.3.1.4 重新整理總成本31.3.1.5 有價原料回收總成本32.3.1.6 收購總成本33.3.1.7 儲存總成本34.3.1.8 廢料處理總成本35.4 模糊理論36.4.1 模糊集合36.4.2 模糊數38.4.3 模糊集合運算39.4.4 解模糊化法40四章 數值案例42.1 台灣電腦回收概述42.2 電腦回收拆解流程45.3 數值案例47.4 外部效益分析54五章 統整與結論58考文獻60錄6