A Probability Prediction Rule for Malignant Cervical Lymphadenopathy Using Sonography

Background. Our purpose was to weigh various sonographic parameters as predicting malignant cervical lymphadenopathy and build a reliable prediction rule. Methods. One hundred and eighty-nine cervical lymph node lesions from 125 consecutive patients were used for building the prediction model. Sonographic variables, including 15 morphologic features of B-mode, 5 vascular parameters of color Doppler mode, along with age and sex, were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the joint effect of a set of independent variables. A prediction rule for malignant lymphadenopathy was established, and prospective validation was assessed on a new group consisting of 100 lymph nodes from another 60 consecutive patients. Results. The association of heterogeneous content, long transverse diameter, athologic vascular pattern, high Vascular density, and older age provided the most robust prediction value. Scoring scale was designed as Ix (age) + 2 x (vascularity index) + 3x (short axis) + 4x (vascular pattern) + 4x (internat echo) according to the parameter estimates of multivariate logistic regression analysis. Gut- off Value of score greater than or equal to 10 as malignancy resulted in 89.2% sensitivity and 85.2% specificity. Prospective validation also showed satisfactory results ( sensitivity, 82.9%, specificity, 86.2%). Conclusions. By measuring only 4 sonographic parameters and age, this prediction rule could provide the physician a nonconfusing and reliable probability reference far managing cervical lymphadenopathy. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc