Directors or Financial Managers with Working Experience of CPA Firms, the Accuracy of Financial Forecast, and Earnings Management

本研究係對公司之董事長、董事、總經理或財會主管是否具備會計師事務所經驗，與財務預測準確度及盈餘管理程度高低之關聯性進行交互探討與研究，主要探討下列三點： 一、董事長、董事、總經理或財會主管具備會計師事務所經驗與盈餘管理程度高低之關聯性。 二、公司財務預測誤差率與盈餘管理程度高低之關聯性。 三、董事長、董事、總經理或財會主管具備會計師事務所經驗之公司是否較傾向以較高之盈餘管理程度降低財務預測誤差率。 本研究採用裁決性應計數衡量盈餘管理程度，裁決性應計數之估計使用Modified Jones Model；財務預測準確度則以財務預測誤差率（實際稅前盈餘與財務預測稅前盈餘之差額以期初資產總額平減之）衡量。本研究以我國上市（櫃）公司於2003年至2005年曾公告或公布財務預測稅前盈餘數字者為觀察樣本，經篩選之後樣本數共計1,409個觀察值。 實證結果顯示，董事長、董事、總經理與財會主管曾任職於會計師事務所之企業在裁決性應計數大於零之情形下，向上操縱盈餘之幅度較其他公司為大；而裁決性應計數小於零時，董事長、董事、總經理與財會主管曾任職於會計師事務所之企業與其他公司在盈餘向下調整之程度上則無顯著不同。 無論財務預測低估或高估時，向下調整之裁決性應計數與向上調整之裁決性應計數對於與財務預測誤差率之影響有顯著之不同。大於零之裁決性應計數對於財務預測準確度並無顯著之影響。而小於零之裁決性應計數，在財務預測低估時，向下操縱之程度越高，反而使財務預測越不準確；在財務預測高估時，向下調整則使財務預測誤差程度較大。亦即若公司向上進行盈餘管理，對於財務預測誤差率並無顯著之影響；而公司向下調整盈餘，並不會使財務預測較為準確。 此外，董事長、董事、總經理與財會主管具備會計師事務所經驗之公司，其財務預測準確度並未顯著高於其他公司。而財務預測低估時，董事長、董事、總經理與財會主管具備會計師事務所經驗之企業，其向上調整之盈餘管理行為會使其財務預測準確度較進行同樣向上程度盈餘管理之其他企業為低；同樣地，其向下調整之盈餘管理行為亦會使其財務預測準確度較進行同樣向下程度盈餘管理之其他企業為低。在財務預測高估時，董事長、董事、總經理與財會主管具備會計師事務所經驗之企業，其盈餘管理行為無論是向上或向下調整，對財務預測準確度之影響，與其他公司並無顯著之不同。This study examines the relation among directors or financial managers with working experience of CPA firms, the accuracy of financial forecast, and earnings management. We focus on the following three issues: 1. The relation between directors or financial managers with working experience of CPA firms and earnings management. 2. The relation between the accuracy of financial forecast and earnings management. 3. Whether the companies with directors or financial managers who had working experience of CPA firms used higher extent of earnings management to make the financial forecast. In this study, we use the discretionary accruals (DA) to measure the extent of earnings management, and the forecast error ratio (FER) for measuring the accuracy of financial forecast. This study includes all firms which announced financial forecasts and listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange and Over-the-Counter from 2003 to 2005 in the sample. The substantial evidence finds after the analysis, when DA is larger than zero, the companies with directors or financial managers who had working experience of CPA firms had higher extent of earnings management upwards. When DA is less than zero, there is nothing significantly different between the companies with directors or financial managers who had working experience of CPA firms and other firms. No matter the actual earnings is higher or lower than forecasted earnings, DA upward and downward has different impacts on FER. DA upward shows no significant influence on FER. However, DA less than zero makes the financial forecast less accurate. Besides, the companies with directors or financial managers who had working experience of CPA firms does not significantly had lower FER than other firms. When the financial forecast is underestimated, the companies with directors or financial managers who had working experience of CPA firms has lower accuracy of financial forecast than other companies which use the same extent of DA. When the forecasted earnings is higher than the actual earnings, the companies with directors or financial managers who had working experience of CPA firms are not significantly different from other companies in FER, no matter DA is upward or downward.口試委員會審定書………………………………………………….. i 誌謝………………………………………………………………….. ii 中文摘要……………………………………………………………..iii 英文摘要…………………………………………………………….. v 目錄…………………………………………………………………..vii 圖目錄…………………………………………………………….... ix 表目錄……………………………………………………………….. ix 第一章 緒論………………………………………………………… 1 第一節 研究動機………………………………………………….. 1 第二節 研究目的………………………………………………... 4 第三節 研究架構………………………………………………... 5 第二章 文獻探討…………………………………………………… 7 第一節 盈餘管理相關文獻探討………………………………… 7 第二節 財務預測相關文獻探討……………………………….. 18 第三節 旋轉門相關規定簡介與文獻探討…………………….. 22 第三章 研究方法……………………………………………….. 26 第一節 研究假說…………………………………………….... 26 第二節 變數衡量與研究設計……………………………….... 29 第三節 樣本來源與選取方法……………………………….... 36 第四章 實證結果與分析…………………………………….... 38 第一節 敘述性統計分析…………………………………….... 38 第二節 單變量分析………………………………………….... 46 第三節 多元迴歸結果分析………………………………….... 51 第五章 研究結論、限制與建議……………………………….. 59 第一節 研究結論…………………………………………….... 59 第二節 研究限制…………………………………………….... 61 第三節 研究建議…………………………………………….... 62 參考文獻……………………………………………………………. 6