The Effects of the One-Year Extension of the 50% Tax Rate Cut of the Land Value Increment Tax on Listed Construction Companies.

摘要 土地增值稅減半徵收規定於民國九十三年一月三十一日屆滿，對於是否繼續延長，各方都有不同的意見，最後終於在民國九十二年十二月二十七日朝野黨政協商，決議讓土地增值稅減半徵收再延長一年，並於民國九十三年一月七日正式由立法院三讀通過，延長至民國九十四年一月底。本研究運用事件研究法，探討上市營建業之股票成交量是否因土地增值稅減半徵收延長一年而產生正的累積異常成交量週轉率？並探討造成上市營建業之股票產生累積異常成交量週轉率的原因為何？與該上市營建業之負債比率、存貨—成屋待售佔總資產比率、存貨—營建用土地加在建房地佔總資產比率、市值倍數及2003/12/24個股收盤成交價等是否有關？研究結果發現：（一）在土地增值稅減半徵收延長一年的意外利多消息發布後，其對上市營建業在股票成交量的影響上，在本研究所選擇的兩個事件日(2003/12/29、2004/01/07)之事件期間內(共十一天)，其累積異常成交量週轉率之平均值為正的11.99%，且其P-Value = 0.0002，達到1%的顯著水準。代表市場上投資人對該項利多消息亦持正面看法，因而增加了對於上市營建類股的交易量。（二）上市營建業的存貨中所含的營建用土地加在建房地佔總資產比例越高者，其股票之累積異常成交量週轉率則會越低。誚]該項利多政策僅延長一年，投資人預期不可能在短短一年內即可完工並售出而然。（三）負債比率、存貨—成屋待售佔總資產比率、市值倍數及2003/12/24個股收盤成交價等變數，因其P-Value均未達到傳統5%的顯著水準，故未獲得上述變數與累積異常成交量週轉率的相關證據。Abstract Graduate Institute of Accounting National Taiwan University Title : The Effects of the One-Year Extension of the 50% Tax Rate Cut of the Land Value Increment Tax on Listed Construction Companies. Name : Chien, Yin Ying Advisor : Lin, Suming, Ph.D. Month/Year : June, 2004 Although there were heavy disputes over the extension of the 50% tax rate cut of the land value increment tax, the legislative Yuan finally passed the proposal to extend such tax privilege one more year till the end of January 2005. This study attempts to investigate whether the one-year extension of tax privilege would result in the positive cumulative abnormal volume (CAV) of the listed construction companies as well as the relation between CAV and the following five company characteristic variables: debt ratio, house built to sell/total assets ratio, land and construction in process/total assets ratio, market value/book value ratio, and stock’s closing prices on the event day. This study finds the following results. First, during the event dates (from 2003/12/29 to 2004/01/07), the average cumulative abnormal volume is 11.99%, which is significantly positive. Second, those listed construction companies with higher land and construction-in-process/total assets ratio had lower cumulative abnormal volume. Third, as the empirical evidence indicates, the debt ratio, house built to sell/total assets ratio, market value/book value ratio and stock’s closing prices were not related to the cumulative abnormal volume.目 錄 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與研究動機 1 第二節 研究問題 7 第三節 研究架構 8 第二章 文獻探討 9 第一節 土地增值稅相關探討 9 第二節 會計、租稅政策變動對資本市場之影響 13 第三章 研究方法 20 第一節 事件日選擇 21 第二節 資料來源與樣本選擇 31 第三節 實證模型 33 第四節 實證假說 37 第四章 實證結果與分析 41 第一節 敘述性統計值 41 第二節 異常成交量週轉率與累積異常成交量週轉率 44 第三節 累積異常成交量週轉率之回歸分析 51 第五章 結論與建議 57 第一節 研究結論 57 第二節 研究限制與研究建議 58 參考文獻 6