The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan

本研究評估高病原性禽流感（H5N1）對我國總體經濟與各產業部門可能所造成的衝擊。由於對疫情的嚴重程度有相當大的不確定性，且世界各國也對此議題抱以極大的關心，本研究便蒐集國內外的經濟衝擊評估報告並加以比較來進行情境設定模擬。同時也參考我國在2003年SARS事件的經驗，以評估疫情爆發對我國經濟的可能影響。另外，疫情爆發時所產生之死亡、住院人數、門診人數等資訊並可透過美國防疫管制中心(CDC)所提供的軟體，在事先假設的感染率以及死亡率下推得出。從SARS的經驗可知，流感大流行會使得勞工因感染而留在家休養；消費者的投資信心也會大受影響，同時也會改變自己的消費偏好行為。本研究可計算一般均衡模型便是用來模擬疫情爆發可能之損失，如國內消費、生產、出口以及就業需求的減少。 模擬結果發現若疫情僅限禽畜間感染的0級階段，對全國實質GDP變動來講，影響將在-0.01%∼-0.09％之間，全國就業需求減少0.02%~ 0.15%。但一旦進入人傳人與全國大流行的階段，在考慮資源具流動性且產品之間具有替代性、價格允許自由調整的假設條件下，顯示對於實質GDP的影響大約在-2.39％至-3.83％之間，就業需求亦同步減少1.25％至1.49％。各產業當中受到影響較大的除了家禽產業以及其上下游產業外，人傳人階段主要影響服務業部門如批發、零售、運輸、旅館，同時也會波及到醫療服務業，造成全面性的衝擊。This study analyzes the potential economic consequences of an outbreak of the avian influenza (H5N1) on Taiwan’s macro-economy and individual sectors. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the severity of the disease and with great concern of the world, we review all the domestic and foreign studies on the impact evaluation of the avian flu to construct the outbreak scenarios. The experience with the 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS) outbreak also provide the exposure data about how and to what extent to which an outbreak affects national economic activities. The information of the amount of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits can be provided by the software designed by the Center for Disease Control of the United States under alternative assumptions of the infection rate and mortality rate. Following the SARS experience, the pandemic also forces many workers to stay home, affects consumers’ confidence and changes consumption behavior. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate the possible damage brought by lowering domestic consumption, production, export, and labor demand. The simulation results indicates that if the disease is confined within the poultry sector, then the impact on real GDP is around -0.01%~-0.09% where or labor demand is -0.02~-0.15%. Once it becomes a human-to-human pandemic, the CGE analysis, which allows for resource mobility and substitutions through price adjustments, predicts that the real GDP and labor demand would contract by 2.39%~3.83% and 1.25%~1.49%, respectively. As for the individual sector, the outbreak not only damages the poultry sector and its upstream and downstream industries, but also affects the service sectors including wholesale, retail, transportation, hotels, and healthcare services.口試委員會審定書.......................... ....i 謝辭.......................... ....ii ABSTRACT.......................... ....iV 中文摘要.......................... ....v I. Introduction1 1.1 Research Motivation........................... ......1 1.2 Objective............................................4 1.3 Methodology..........................................5 II. The Epidemic Situation of Avian flu and Preparedness..9 2.1 Background of Avian Influenza........................9 2.2 Comparison of Economic Impact Estimates.............19 2.3 Methodology Review..................................32 III. Conceptual Framework................................40 3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation ..............................40 3.2 Static General Equilibrium Model....................42 IV. Data and Scenario Design.............................53 4.1 Model Data..........................................53 4.1.1 Input-Output Table ..............................53 4.1.2 The Elasticities Files..........................58 4.2 Epidemic Data.......................................62 4.2.1 Estimates of Deaths, Hospitalizations and Outpatient Visits...............................62 4.2.2 Medical Resources Allocation in Pandemic Influenza ................................................74 4.3 Scenario Design.....................................81 4.4 Summary of Simulation...............................97 V. Simulation Results....................................99 5.1 Macroeconomic Effect................................99 5.2 Microeconomic Effect...............................104 5.3 Comparison with Previous Study.....................113 VI. Conclusion: Policy Implication......................120 6.1 Conclusion.........................................120 6.2 Contribution and Future Study......................123 Reference ...............................................126 Appendix................................................13