An Application of the Real Option Method to Capacity Planning of Semiconductor Manufacturing

半導體製造產業具有需求不確定、產能投資成本高、技術更迭快等特性，導致競爭激烈、經營風險高，產業景氣循環現象非常劇烈，產能供給與需求經常發生失衡，產能投資的決策不僅決定經營獲利，也會影響廠商的長期競爭力，因此產能投資是廠商的重要決策，而用於產能規劃的方法有很多，而其中實質選擇權法適用於不確定性很高的環境，故本文針對半導體製造產業，為廠商分析如何將實質選擇權法應用於產能規劃上。首先以產業數據分析半導體製造的成本、需求與營收趨勢，討論不確定需求、高產能成本對產業結構的影響。其次，以營收為產能擴充的績效指標，經由實驗設計與統計方法，找出目前廠商面臨到的不確定性環境下最適切的實質選擇權使用方法，並分析影響產能規劃績效的不確定性因素與影響程度，來協助廠商進行產能決策。The semiconductor manufacturing industry can be prominently characterized by intense competition, high capacity investment cost, rapid technology advancement and uncertain demand. Process technologies and demand are the two major sources of uncertainties so that the balance between demand and supply is hard to achieve. Because of high capacity investment cost, any mistake in capacity strategy will damage the corporation’s long-term competitiveness. There are many methods for capacity strategy planning, such as stochastic programming, optimal control, and real option method. The real option method is suitable for high uncertain industries. Hence, this thesis focuses on how a company can apply the real option method to its capacity planning, and industry data of average selling price and manufacturing costs are utilized in the analysis. This paper first describes the competition state of the industry by presenting the trends of average selling price, materials and labor cost, operating expenses, and capacity cost of representative firms in the industry. In the second part, capacity planning is analyzed by using experimental design and statistical methods under various scenarios to find a best way for application of the real option method.摘要I ABSTRACTII 目錄III 圖目錄V 表目錄VII 1緒論1 1.1背景1 1.2問題描述7 1.3研究目的9 1.4研究構想10 1.5論文結構11 2文獻回顧12 2.1產能規劃之類別12 2.2不確定產能環境的產能擴充策略14 2.3實質選擇權產能擴充策略下的等候價值15 2.4統計分析方法24 2.4.1變異數分析25 2.4.2中位數檢定法25 2.4.3迴歸分析法26 3情境變數趨勢分析與實驗設計27 3.1參數趨勢27 3.2平均售價趨勢35 3.3需求參數趨勢38 3.4廠商間之營運趨勢比較41 3.4.1成本與平均售價比較41 3.4.2需求參數比較42 4產能軌跡規劃模組簡介44 4.1系統背景44 4.2內部資料45 4.3模組計算過程46 4.4模組使用說明54 5模擬結果分析58 5.1績效指標58 5.2等候有價期間之設定探討59 5.3績效分析61 5.3.1總營業純益61 5.3.2固定資產報酬率64 6結論與貢獻66 6.1總結66 6.2未來研究建議66 參考文獻68 附錄7