行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告:政策環評理論及實務之研究：環境承載力模式及總量管制策略之建立─子計畫六：環境承載力系統動態模式及多目標管理模式之建立(I)

The purpose of Strategy Environmental Assessment (SEA) is to evaluate whether decisions or their alternatives will influence sustainable development on the decision level of policy, program and plan. Loading without exceeding environmental carrying capacity is a major criterion for defining sustainability. Besides, loadings should consider spatially cumulating impacts of all past, current, and future possible projects. Environmental carrying capacity and cumulative impact assessment are two key components of sustainability appraisal, and thus should be incorporated in SEA. Current SEA in Taiwan is only qualitative analysis. Although many items are listed, they are not clearly related to sustainable development and there is lack of standard evaluation procedure. Sustainable development is hold when cumulative impacts do not exceed carrying capacities. A draft framework to modify qualitative analysis matrix of SEA is proposed, which tries to relate SEA to sustainable development and plays the role of screening to identify items needed further quantitative analysis. Stream water quality and water resource uses are used as examples in this study. Environmental carrying capacities of pollution and resources can be allocated to each unit area as land attributes. One can acquire allowable loading via obtain land. This is a four year project, and this report shows the major findings in the first year. The major task of the first year is to clearly identify the relationship between SEA and sustainable development and methods to develop quantitative analysis models for SEA. More works wait for being done in the next three years. A comprehensive qualitative analysis matrix and quantitative analysis models by using system dynamics and multiobjective optimization for SEA are expected.政策環境影響評估之主要宗旨是希望在較高決策層級即分析決策與替代方案是否會影響永續發展。不超過環境承載力為永續性評量準則在國際間已有相當共識，而且衝擊之影響必須考量空問之累積與時間上包括過去、現在、及未來開發計畫之累積影響。環境承載力與累積性影響評估為確保環境永續性之重要分析項目，因此在政策環評中就公須將兩個主要評估特性納入。國內目前政策環評是透過評估矩陣進行定性評估，雖明列評估項目，但各項評估缺乏標準評量方法，且未清楚界定與永續發展之關係。永續發展在於累積影響不超過環境承載力。在本研究中以河川水質與水資源利用為例進行說明，並提出政策環評分析矩陣架構修正之初步建議，使定性之政策環評可與永續發展之觀念結合，並作為是否進一步進行量化分析之判斷準則。本報告以頭前溪為例進行累積影響與環境承載力評估方法之應用，並說明如何以政策環評結果作為計畫環境影響評估之依據。本研究建議利用土地屬性方式來進行管理，將環境承載力分配於土地，取得土地即取得承載力之分配，何時取得即何時獲得分配，可合理考慮開發計畫在不同時問軸產生之累積性影響，並確保不超過承載力。本計畫期程為四年，本年度（第一年）研究工作注重於政策環境影響評估與永續發展問觀念之釐清，並探討建立評量系統之方法與相關問題，未來工作，除了更完整建議政策環評評估矩陣之修改方式及標準評估流程，並其透過系統動力模式與多目標規劃建立整合性量化評估模式