MODERNIZATION, VULNERABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST BANGLADESH

The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh bears the mark of modernization, beginning with a high engineering water resource management, agricultural intensification and consequent integration into the global export market. The four-decade process of modernization has altered the coastal hydrology, rearticulated the patterns of social and ecological relationships and transformed resource access and management mechanism. The modernization of water management installed embankments, sluice gates, and polders and regulated the natural flow of saline and freshwater in the complex coastal system. In the early stage of this dimension of modernization, coastal communities became benefited in producing high yielding variety (HYV) rice. However, in the long run technical management of a complex hydrologic system caused prolong water-logging and caused a water disaster in many of the controlled coastal regions.The second dimension of modernization was accomplished through the process of trade liberalization and intensification of agricultural system. In the 1980s, the Government of Bangladesh launched a reformulation of land and financial policies to stimulate the growth of an export oriented shrimp industry, including prawn. The intensification of agriculture, as expressed in the mode of intensive prawn farming improved the economic condition of the farmers. However, the capital intensive prawn farming transformed local institutions and made the farmers vulnerable to external stresses as they become connected to global market system. Market price fluctuation, trade barrier and poor institutional support are increasing vulnerability among the farmers.Nonetheless, prawn farming that significantly depends on natural system has become challenging to the recent climate variability. An analysis of farmers' perception and different environmental data shows that changes in precipitation, temperature, salinity and other extreme climatic events have increased uncertainty to the future of prawn farming. The cumulative impact from a social (market) and environmental (climate change) have seriously undermined the farmers' effort of producing prawn for global market. Based on the findings elicited in the study it is recommended that there is an immediate need for prawn farming adaptation strategy.Embargo: Release after 08/09/201