PREDICTION OF ACADEMIC SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF ALGEBRA I STUDENTS.

The purpose of this study was to determine if selected variables were significant predictors for the academic success or failure of Algebra I students. Two methods of data gathering were used in the study. The Student Attribution Inventory (SAI) was first administered to the classes during one class period. One hundred eighty-five students participated. Only two students could not because of a language barrier. The second method of data gathering was done by the researcher. First, a letter was sent home to the students' parents for permission to use the cumulative folders of their sons and daughters. Letters were collected daily by the teacher and weekly by the researcher. A follow-up letter was sent home several weeks later to those parents who had not previously responded. Once permission was granted, the researcher received the cumulative folders and obtained the necessary information. Out of 185 students, 110 were used in the study. Stepwise multiple regression was used for four of the eight hypotheses. These were tested at the .05 level of significance. This level of prediction was used to determine if selected variables were significant predictors for the academic success or failure of Algebra I students. The findings showed that achievement motivation (a resultant behavior of an emotional conflict between hopes for success and fears of failure), luck (external, unstable, unintentional factor which is related to the perceived randomness in events), and previous mathematics achievement (as measured by the California Achievement Test (CAT)), were the variables found to be statistically significant. Ability, previous reading achievement, and age were not entered into the regression equation by the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) because of insufficient predictability. The remaining hypotheses employed t-tests as the statistical method of testing. These four hypotheses were also tested at the .05 level of significance. The results showed that neither sex differences nor ethnic groups were significant in prediction of Algebra I final grades and achievement motivation. Further research is necessary to increase the understanding of achievement motivation and luck in classroom situations, counseling sessions, and group dynamics