Reliability-based inspection planning in view of both crack initiation and propagation

27th annual European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2017), Portoroz, Slovenia, June, 2017Fatigue cracks pose threats to the integrity of welded structures and thus need to be addressed in the whole service lives of structures. In-service inspections are important means to decease the probability of failure due to uncertainties that cannot be accounted for in the design stage. To help schedule inspection actions, the decline curve of reliability index with time needs to be known. A predictive tool is normally developed based on crack propagation models neglecting the crack initiation stage, which leads to conservative predictions for fatigue life. Inspection plans built on those predictions are far from optimal, especially for welds with relatively long crack initiation life. This paper proposes to use a fracture mechanics based reliabil-ity analysis method that takes the crack initiation stage into account via the concept of Time-To-Crack-Initiation (TTCI). The optimum inspection plan for a fatigue prone ship structural component is derived by the new approach and compared to the commonly-used method that only considers crack propagation life. Two inspection planning approaches are tested to investigate the influence of incorporating crack initiation period: (i) target reliability approach and, (ii) equidistant inspection times approach. With each planning ap-proach, two inspection methods are adopted: close visual and magnetic particle inspection. The paper con-cludes with recommendations on the inspection method and planning approach to adopt while considering and without considering the crack initiation stage.European Commission Horizon 2020TRUSS IT