Presidential Approval Ratings on Midterm Elections

This paper examines midterm elections in the quest to find the evidence which accounts for the electoral loss of the party controlling the presidency. The first set of theory, the regression to the mean theory, explained that as the stronger the presidential victory or seats gained in previous presidential year, the higher the midterm seat loss. The economy/popularity theories, elucidate midterm loss due to economic condition at the time of midterm. My paper assesses to know what extent approval rating affects the number of seats gain/loss during the election. This research evaluates both theories’ and the aptness to expound midterm seat loss at midterm elections. The findings indicate that both theories deserve some credit, that the economy has some impact as suggested by previous research, and the regression to the mean theories offer somewhat more accurate predictions of seat losses. A combined/integrated model is employed to test the constant, and control variables to explain the aggregate seat loss of midterm elections since 1946