Energy Low Emission Development Strategies and CO2 emission forecast by EFFECT tool

Niskougljična strategija razvoja temelj je za razvoj energetike s niskom razinom ugljika, ali i cjelokupnog gospodarstva. Europska unija predvodnik je u provođenju mjera smanjenja emisija posebice u energetici kao sektoru s najviše emisija. S ciljem smanjenja emisija istaknute su potrebne mjere za energetiku u zemljama EU-a, među njima i za Hrvatsku. Opisane su niskougljične strategije razvoja zemalja u EU i svijetu, a posebno su istaknute mogućnosti Hrvatske za ostvarivanje niskougljičnog razvoja. Kako bi se odredila odgovarajuća strategija izrađeni su alati za planiranje niskougljičnog razvoja. Posebno je opisan program EFFECT pomoću kojeg su napravljeni scenariji za elektroenergetski sektor Hrvatske te su analizirana predviđanja budućih emisija. Projekcije emisija napravljene su s obzirom na mogućnosti različitih provedbi niskougljičnih mjera te je napravljena usporedbena analiza scenarija.Low-carbon development strategy is fundamental for the development of the energetics with low rate of carbon, but also for the entire economy. European Union is the leader in the effort to reduce emissions especially in the energy sector as the sector with the highest rate of emission. With the goal of reducing emissions, necessary measures are accentuated for energy in the EU Countries, as well as in Croatia. Described low-carbon strategies are in the process of development in the EU Countries and globaly, and the possibilities for realization of Croatian low-carbon development are particularly emphasized. In order to determine the appropriate strategy for each country the tools have been made for planning low-carbon development. The EFFECT program, by which models of electric power system in Croatia are designed, is particularly described and predictions of future emissions are analyzed. Emission projections were made taking into account the implementation of various low-carbon measures and the comparative scenario analysis was done