What can Google Trends tell us about Bitcoin Trading volume in Croatia? An application of Granger Causality Test

U doba suvremene tehnologije, digitalizacija preuzima ulogu klasičnog modela trgovanja te ga seli u virtualni svijet. U skladu s time se pojavila potreba za stvaranjem alternative standardnim fizičkim sredstvima razmjene – kriptovaluta. Kriptovaluta je ime dano sustavu koji upotrebljava kriptografiju kako bi omogućio siguran transfer i razmjenu digitalnih tokena i novčića na distribuiran i decentraliziran način, pri čemu te tokene i novčiće onda možemo mijenjati za standardne valute po njihovim uobičajenim tržišnim vrijednostima. S obzirom na trenutnu medijsku pozornost usmjerenu na kriptovalute te mogućnost online alata Google Trend kojim se može istražiti traženost određenog ključnog pojma, od interesa je istražiti pretraživanja pojmova povezanih uz kriptovalute, odnosno bitcoin, na području Republike Hrvatske. Primijenjena je Grangerova analiza uzročnosti na užem i širem setu podataka, te se može zaključiti kako upiti ključne riječi „bitcoin“ na online platformi Google u Grangerovom smislu uzrokuju promjene u volumenu trgovanja bitcoinom na online tržištu LocalBitcoins, dok obrnuto ne vrijedi.In the era of modern technology, the growing impact of digitization moves the classic trading model into the virtual world. Consequently, the need for alternative means of exchange has arisen. This resulted with the development of cryptocurrencies, i.e. systems that are using cryptography to allow the secure transfer and exchange of digital tokens in a distributed and decentralized manner. These tokens can be traded at market rates for fiat currencies. Given the current media attention focused on cryptocurrencies and the ability of the Google Trends online tool to explore the search for a particular key word, it is of interest to explore search terms related to cryptocurrencies, and especially bitcoin, in the area of the Republic of Croatia. Granger causality tests were applied in order to examine causality between Google search frequencies and Bitcoin trading volume. The results showed that, on the level of Republic of Croatia, “Bitcoin“ keyword Google search volume Granger causes changes in the bitcoin trading volume in the online marketplace LocalBitcoins, however, not vice versa