Dynamics of Passenger Demand and of Public Carriers Transport Capacity Development in Croatian Road Passenger Transport

Prema transportnoj putničkoj potražnji dimenzioniraju se prijevozni kapaciteti u sustavu prijevoza putnika u cestovnom prometu. Cilj ovog rada bio je utvrditi dosadašnju dinamiku razvitka ovih dviju veličina u sedmogodišnjem razdoblju od 2009. do 2015. godine, te na temelju njih izraditi prognostički trend model za buduće razdoblje. Sukladno tom prognostičkom trend modelu moguće je predvidjeti dinamiku razvitka ovih veličina. Na taj se način, ukoliko se dođe do jasnih prognoza budućeg stanja, mjerama prometne politike, kako države, tako i poduzetnika, može se utjecati na prometni sustav i razvijati ga u pozitivnom pravcu. U uvodu se iznosi problem i predmet istraživanja, njegova svrha cilj i doprinos. Navode se dosadašnja istraživanja na tu temu s kratkim osvrtom na bitne elemente povezane s temom rada. U nastavku se navodi metodologija istraživanja te ukratko obrazlaže struktura rada. Definira se pojam transportne putničke potražnje s njenim bitnim značajkama. Analiziraju se podaci o kapacitetu putničkog voznog parka u hrvatskom javnom cestovnom putničkom prometu te njegova dinamika. Obavlja se analiza i ocjena usklađenosti dinamike i trendova promjene putničke transportne potražnje i kapaciteta putničkog voznog parka. Za svaku od ovih veličina izračunata je aritmetička sredina, standardna devijacija, koeficijent varijabilnosti, te prosječna godišnja stopa promjene. U radu je u analizu uključen cjelokupni javni cestovni prometni sustav.According to the passenger transport demand, transport capacities in the system of passenger road transport are being sized. The aim of this article is to define current dynamics of development of these two sizes in the seven-year period between 2009 and 2015, and based on those, make a trend prediction model for the future period. According to that trend prediction model it is possible to predict the developmental dynamics of those sizes. In that way, if well-defined predictions of future conditions are obtained, the measures of transport policy, both by the government and by the entrepreneurs, may influence the transport system and develop it in the positive direction. The introduction sets out the problem and the subject matter of the research, its purpose, aim and contribution. Recent research on that topic are cited together with a short overview of the important elements related to the topic of the work. In the continuation the method of research is presented alongside a brief explanation of the work structure. The term passenger transport demand is defined including its significant features. Data on the capacity of passenger fleet in the Croatian public road passenger transport is analysed together with its dynamics. The analysis and the assessment of the compliance of dynamics and the trends in the changes of passenger transport demand and the capacity of passenger fleet are carried out. For each of these sizes the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, variability coefficient and the average annual change rate are calculated. The analysis in the work includes the entire public road traffic system