ANALIZA DETERMINANTI JAVNOG DUGA U RH : završni rad

Rad čine 3 cjeline u kojima se objašnjava uzrok kretanja javnog duga na primjeru Hrvatske. U prve dvije cjeline se teorijski objašnjava obrađena tema, a u zadnjoj cjelini se koristi praktični rad u kojem je cilj analizirati i objasniti pojam i značaj javnog duga za makroekonomsku stabilnost i gospodarski rast. U teorijskom dijelu je objašnjen javni dug kao pojam te njegov značaj. U drugoj cjelini se govori o uzrocima nastanka, te kretanjima i strukturi javnog duga Republike Hrvatske. Uz to je napravljena usporedba Hrvatske i post tranzicijskih zemalja kako bi se usporedio značaj i posljedice javnog duga, te su analizirane determinante prema prethodnim istraživanjima koje su se koristile u daljnjoj obradi rada. U zadnjoj cjelini je korištena statistička metoda višestruke regresije javnog duga Republike Hrvatske kao model kojim bi se utvrdile determinante kretanja javnog duga. Prema dobivenim rezultatima istraživanja došlo se do zaključka da utjecaj na kretanje javnog duga imaju stopa nezaposlenosti i stopa rasta državne potrošnje u BDP-u. Dodatnom utvrđenom analizom pomoću trenda kretanja varijabli ipak veći utjecaj na kretanje javnog duga ostvaruje stopa nezaposlensti u odnosu na stopu rasta državne potrošnje u BDP-u. Težinu odabira determinanti javnog duga predstavlja složena struktura javnog duga kao pojma koji ima vrlo širok utjecaj na gospodarstvo i stabilnost.The work consists of 3 units in explaining the cause of public debt in the case of Croatia. In the first two parts there is theoretically explained topic, and in the last part is used by practical work in which the objective is to analyze and explain the concept and importance of public debt to macroeconomic stability and economic growth. The theoretical part explains the public debt as a concept and its importance. In the second part is explained about the causes of trends and structure of public debt of the Croatia. With this comparison is made Croatian and post transition countries in order to compare the significance and consequences of public debt, and analyzes the determinants according to previous studies that were used in the further processing operation. In the last general statistical method is used by multiple regression of Croatian public debt as a model to identify the determinants of public debt. According to the research results it was concluded that the impact on public debt movements have unemployment rates and the rate of growth of government spending to GDP. Additional analysis using the established trend of variables shows that still greater impact on public debt movements have unemployment rate compared to the growth rate of government spending to GDP. Weight selection determinants of public debt is a complex structure of public debt as a concept that has a very broad impact on the economy and stability