State of logistics and transport in the Baltic Sea region in 2025

The world’s pace of change is accelerating and new innovations, inventions and technologies come about every day. Change is unavoidable. It is difficult to keep up and even more difficult to prepare for the future. Even though it is not possible to know exactly what will happen in the future, by studying futures people can better anticipate what might lie ahead. By making decisions and realizing the consequences of their choices today, people and governments are able to actively decide how they will act in the future. Both opportunities and pitfalls lie ahead, which encourages actors to make more farsighted decisions. The Baltic Sea region is an interesting area for futures studies. It comprises 11 nations and more than 100 million inhabitants and entails countries with advanced, high-income economies, like Finland, Germany and Denmark, and developing economies, like Russia, Latvia and Lithuania. The western, eastern, northern and southern parts of the region are separated by the Baltic Sea, which at the same time represents a barrier and a facility for trade and travel between the countries belonging to the region The purpose of this study was to uncover the most probable future of transport and logistics in the Baltic Sea region in 2025 by using the Delphi method. Altogether 109 responses were collected in two separate instances from experts in all the Baltic Sea region countries, 56 of whom were defined as academic respondents and 53 of whom business respondents. Only minor differences in the opinions of academic and business experts were discovered, and the larger differences lie between eastern and western response groups. The Baltic Sea region is a very heterogeneous region and the division is clearest between East and West, which differ in political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects. The probable future of the Baltic Sea region presented in this study is coherent with previous studies on the same subject. The future of the Baltic Sea region in terms of logistics and transport looks quite bright according to the experts who participated in the study. Trade volumes will grow and the importance of logistics and transport to the competitiveness of the region will increase. Respondents from eastern countries seemed to be more optimistic about the future in general. Most differences between opinions could be explained by the gap in technological and infrastructural development between the East and West. As eastern countries are less-developed in some parts of their economies, it is easier for them to improve the technical condition of infrastructure by merely catching up with the western countries.siirretty Doriast