The transportation energy carrier of the future. System interactions between the transportation and stationary sectors in a carbon constrained world

The aim of this study is to examine how the options for producing electricity, fuels, and heat in a carbon constrained world affect cost-effective fuels and propulsion technologies in the transportation sector. GET 7.0, a global energy system model with five end-use sectors, is used for the analysis. We find that an energy system dominated by either solar thermal energy or nuclear power tends to make biofuels in plug-in hybrids cost-effective. If coal with carbon capture and storage dominates the energy system, hydrogen cars, rather than plug-in hybrids tends to become cost-effective. From a Monte Carlo analysis we conclude that the stationary energy system does not alone determine how the transportation sector develops, but that its impact on the absolute and the relative cost of energy carriers has a significant impact on the cost-effectiveness of different propulsion technologies. Thus, analyses of future energy carriers and propulsion technologies need to consider developments in the stationary energy sector