Using Optimization under Uncertainty to Study Different Aspects of Process Integration Investment Decisions – The Example of Lock-in Effects

New climate and energy policy instruments and the changed energy market conditions thatfollow call for the pulp and paper industry to improve their energy efficiency and reduce their CO2emissions. However, through the concept of the forest biorefinery, these changes also offer aninteresting opportunity for the industry to diversify and potentially grow their revenues. Whenconsidering uncertainties regarding the future prices of energy and wood-based products, a systematicmethodology is needed to make better informed investment decisions. Our previous research in thisfield has focused primarily on development of such a methodology based on stochastic programming,process integration tools, and energy market scenario models. The aim of this paper is to apply themethodology to study one important aspect of the process integration investment decision, namely therisks associated with lock-in situations. Lock-in effects are expected when investment decisions inconventional technology today are made without considering the competitiveness of emergingtechnologies that might enable a pathway to the forest biorefinery through manufacturing of valueaddedproducts. This is illustrated with the example of district heating co-operations and ligninextraction. The systematic approach enables quantitative assessment of the importance of lock-ineffects in the decision-making process