Tropical deforestation in a future international climatepolicy regime—lessons from the Brazilian Amazon

The possibility of adopting national targets for carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions from tropical deforestation in a future international climate treaty has receivedincreasing attention recently. This attention has been prompted by proposals tothis end and more intensified talks on possible commitments for developing countriesbeyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol.We analyze four main scientific and political challenges associated with nationaltargets for emissions from tropical deforestation: (1) reducing the uncertainties inemission inventories, (2) preserving the environmental integrity of the treaty, (3)promoting political acceptance and participation in the regime, and (4) providingeconomic incentives for reduced deforestation.Wedraw the following conclusions. (1)Although there are large uncertainties in carbon flux from deforestation, these are inthe same range as for other emissions included in the current Kyoto protocol (i.e., non-CO2 GHGs), and they can be reduced. However, for forest degradation processes theuncertainties are larger.Alarge challenge lies in building competence and institutionsfor monitoring the full spectrum of land use changes in developing countries. (2 and 3)Setting targets for deforestation is difficult, and uncertainties in future emissions implya risk of creating ‘tropical hot air’. However, there are proposals that may sufficientlydeal with this, and these proposals may also have the advantage of making the targetsmore attractive, politically speaking. Moreover, we conclude that while a full carbonaccounting system will likely be politically unacceptable for tropical countries, thecurrent carbon accounting system should be broadened to include forest degradationin order to safeguard environmental integrity. (4) Doubts can be cast over the possibleeffect a climate regime alone will have on deforestation rates, though littlethorough analysis of this issue has been made