Impact of energy consumption on economic growth in developed and post-transition countries of European Union

Europska unija (EU) donijela je jedinstvenu strategiju energetskog razvoja i ublažavanja klimatskih promjena, kojom će Europa postati „nisko ugljično― gospodarstvo s niskim emisijama stakleničkih plinova, odnosno svjetski lider u borbi protiv klimatskih promjena. U uvjetima izrazite nestabilnosti na tržištima svih energenata, a posebice nafte i plina, u većini zemalja članica EU izražena je svijest o nužnosti upravljanja energetskim razvojem, smanjenju uvozne ovisnosti i racionalnoj potrošnji energije, ali bez negativnog učinka na ekonomski rast. Radi osiguranja novih izvora energije i smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova, EU se usredotočila na veše korištenje obnovljivih izvora energije i na poboljšanje energetske učinkovitosti. Članice EU zadnjih dvadesetak godina intenzivno rade na stvaranju unutarnjeg energetskog tržišta i energetske unije. Paket mjera za energetsku uniju ima za cilj Europi i njezinim građanima osigurati povoljnu, sigurnu i održivu energiju. Mnoge države članice EU-a uvelike ovise o manjem broju dobavljača, posebno u vezi s opskrbom plinom, što ih čini osjetljivima na poremećaje u opskrbi energijom. Osim toga, sve je starija energetska infrastruktura u Europi, slabo su integrirana energetska tržišta, posebno prekogranična. U skladu s ciljevima EU-a dogovorenima u okviru klimatske i energetske politike do 2020. odnosno 2030. godine, EU treba smanjiti svoju ukupnu ovisnost o fosilnim gorivima te smanjiti emisije stakleničkih plinova. EU reformski model bitno je odredio reforme u post-tranzicijskim zemljama, posebice u elektroenergetskom sektoru. S obzirom da je energija u mnogim zemljama ključna za proces ekonomskog rasta, postavljaju se pitanja doprinose li svi izvori energije jednako ekonomskom rastu te koja je razlika u korištenju pojedinih izvora energije u razvijenim u odnosu na post-tranzicijske EU zemlje. Cilj ove doktorske disertacije bio je istražiti utjecaj potrošnje obnovljivih i neobnovljivih izvora energije na ekonomski rast u razvijenim i post-tranzicijskim EU zemljama te utvrditi konvergiraju li post-tranzicijske EU zemlje stopi rasta potrošnje energije razvijenih EU zemalja. Korištenjem statične i dinamične panel analize na skupu 15 razvijenih i 11 post-tranzicijskih EU zemalja dokazano je da potrošnja energije ima pozitivan i statistički značajan utjecaj na ekonomski rast. Dokazano je da promjena potrošnje obnovljivih i neobnovljivih izvora energije po stanovniku ima utjecaj na ekonomski rast u obje skupine zemalja. Međutim, kod post-tranzicijskih EU zemalja utjecaj promjene potrošnje neobnovljivih izvora energije je negativan zbog promjena u strukturi ukupne potrošnje energije te smanjenju energetske intenzivnosti. U slučaju panela razvijenih EU zemalja veši je relativni utjecaj potrošnje OIE po stanovniku na ekonomski rast u odnosu na post-tranzicijske EU zemlje zbog većeg udjela OIE u ukupnoj potrošnji energije. Također je dokazano da post-tranzicijske EU zemlje konvergiraju stopi rasta potrošnje energije razvijenih EU zemalja. Navedeni zaključci predstavljaju osnovu za daljnja istraživanja u ovom području a rezultati prikazani u radu mogu koristiti nositeljima energetske politike za razvoj energetskog sektora u funkciji ekonomskog rasta gospodarstva EU zemalja.The European Union (EU) adopted a strategy for energy development and climate change mitigation. Its main goal is to become a "low carbon" economy with low greenhouse gas emissions, and a world leader in combating climate change. Under the conditions of extreme volatility in the energy market, especially of oil and gas, most EU member states are aware of the necessity of managing energy development, reducing import dependence and the rational consumption of energy, but without a negative effect on economic growth. In order to ensure new sources of energy and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the EU is focused on the greater use of renewable energy sources and the improvement of energy efficiency. In the last twenty years the EU member states have been working on the creation of the internal energy market and Energy union. The package of measures for the Energy union aims to ensure to the EU, and its citizens, a favourable, safe and sustainable energy. Many EU member states are largely dependent on a smaller number of suppliers, particularly regarding the gas supply, which makes them sensitive to energy supply disturbances. In addition, energy infrastructure in Europe is getting old and energy markets, especially cross-border markets, are poorly integrated. In line with EU goals agreed in the framework of climate and energy policy by 2020 and 2030, the EU should reduce its overall dependence on fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EU reform model has a large impact on the reforms carried in post-transition EU countries, especially in the power sector. Given that energy in many countries is crucial for the economic growth process, the question is whether all energy sources have an equal impact on economic growth and what is the difference in the use of particular energy source between developed and post-transition EU countries. The aim of this doctoral dissertation was to analyse the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth in developed and post-transition EU countries, and to determine whether there is a convergence in growth of energy consumption rate between the post-transition and developed EU countries. By using static and dynamic panel analysis on a set of 15 developed and 11 post-transition EU countries, it has been proven that energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. There is evidence that changes in the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy sources per capita have an impact on economic growth in both groups of countries. However, in post-transition EU countries consumption of non-renewable energy sources has a negative impact due to changes in the structure of total energy consumption and decreased energy intensity. In the case of the developed EU countries, the consumption of renewable energy per capita is higher than in the post-transition EU countries due to the higher proportion of renewable energy in total energy consumption. There is also evidence that post-transition EU countries converge to the rate of growth of energy consumption in developed EU countries. These findings are the basis for further research in this area, and the results presented in dissertation can be used by energy policy holders for the development of the energy sector in the function of the economic growth of the EU