General versus Vocational Education: Lessons from a Quasi-Experiment in Croatia

U radu se analizira učinak obrazovne reforme implementirane u Hrvatskoj 1975./76. i 1977./78. godine na obrazovne ishode i ishode tržišta rada. Reforma je srednjoškolsko obrazovanje podijelila u dvije faze, što je rezultiralo kasnijim odvajanjem u strukovna odjeljenja te proširenjem općeg kurikuluma za učenike koji pohađaju strukovno obrazovanje. Koristeći pravila o dobi kretanja u osnovnu školu, vrijeme implementacije reforme te Anketu o radnoj snazi 2000.–2012., pomoću regresije diskontinuiteta ispitujemo efekte reforme na obrazovne ishode i ishode na tržištu rada. Rezultati ukazuju kako je reforma, u prosjeku, smanjila vjerojatnost da osoba ima završeno visoko obrazovanje, što objašnjavamo dodavanjem para-profesionalnog konteksta na nekoć opće srednjoškolske programe (gimnazije). Također, primjećujemo heterogenost učinaka prema spolu. Dok je vjerojatnost završavanja srednje škole za muškarce smanjena, što objašnjavamo visokom stopom nezavršavanja prve faze, za žene ne pronalazimo nikakve negativne učinke, samo povećanje vjerojatnosti nastavka obrazovanja nakon srednje škole. Ovu heterogenost s obzirom na spol objašnjavamo drugačijom selekcijom u obrazovanje za dječake i djevojčice. Reforma nije pozitivno utjecala na perspektivu pojedinca na tržištu rada pa zaključujemo da su razlike u ishodima na tržištu rada uvjetovane neopazivim karakteristikama koje utječu na odabir vrste obrazovanja.This paper identifies the causal effect of an educational reform implemented in Croatia in 1975/76 and 1977/78 on educational and labor market outcomes. High-school education was split into two phases which resulted in reduced tracking and extended general curriculum for pupils attending vocational training. Exploiting the rules on elementary school entry and timing of the reform, we use a regression discontinuity design and pooled Labor Force Surveys 2000–2012 to analyze the effect of the reform on educational attainment and labor market outcomes. We find that the reform, on average, reduced the probability of having university education, which we contribute to attaching professional context to once purely academic and general high-school programs. We also observe heterogeneity of the effects across gender, as for males we find that the probability of finishing high school decreased, while for the females we do not observe any adverse effects, only an increase in the probability of having some university education. We explain this heterogeneity with different selection into schooling for males and females. Reform did not positively affect individuals’ labor market perspectives; therefore, we conclude that the observed general-vocational wage differential is mainly driven by self-selection into the type of high school