The influence of economic cycles on tax revenues in the Republic of Croatia with special emphasis on value added tax

Cilj ovog rada bio je proučiti smjer i intenzitet utjecaja kojeg gospodarski ciklusi imaju na porezne prihode u Republici Hrvatskoj, naročito na prihode od poreza na dodanu vrijednost. U tu svrhu koristio se grafički prikaz, korelacijska analiza, te regresijska analiza, a promatrani period obuhvatio je razdoblje od 2003.,do 2017. godine. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da su porezni prihodi, kako ukupni, tako i samo prihodi od PDV-a, rasli u razdobljima uzleta, ali da u fazi recesije nisu isključivo padali kako je bilo i očekivano. Također, rezultati istraživanja pokazali su kako gospodarski ciklusi utječu na porezne prihode u Hrvatskoj. Konkretno, za fazu recesije pokazalo se da ima jak, negativan i statistički značajan utjecaj na porezne prihode, i kada se u analizu uzmu ukupni porezni prihodi i kada se u analizu uzmu samo prihodi od PDV-a.The aim of this paper was to analyze the direction and intensity of the influence that the economic cycles have on tax revenues in the Republic of Croatia, especially the revenues from the value added tax. For this purpose, the graphical representation, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were used, for the tie periodfrom 2003.,until 2017.The results of the research showed that the tax revenues, both total and only revenues from VAT, grew in periods of expansion, but that in the recession phase they did not exclusively fall as expected. Also, the results of the research showed that economic cycles affect tax revenues in Croatia. It has been shown that the recession phasehas a strong, negative and statistically significant impact on tax revenues, both when the total tax revenues are taken into analysis and when only revenues from VAT are taken into analysis