The Role of Uncertainty in Supply Chains under Dynamic Modelling

The uncertainty in the supply chains (SCs) for manufacturing and services firms is going to be, over the coming decades, more important for the companies that are called to compete in a new globalized economy. Risky situations for manufacturing are considered in trying to individuate the optimal positioning of the order penetration point (OPP). It aims at defining the best level of information of the client’s order going back through the several supply chain (SC) phases, i.e. engineering, procurement, production and distribution. This work aims at defining a system dynamics model to assess competitiveness coming from the positioning of the order in different SC locations. A Taguchi analysis has been implemented to create a decision map for identifying possible strategic decisions under different scenarios and with alternatives for order location in the SC levels. Centralized and decentralized strategies for SC integration are discussed. In the model proposed, the location of OPP is influenced by the demand variation, production time, stock-outs and stock amount. Results of this research are as follows: (i) customer-oriented strategies are preferable under high volatility of demand, (ii) production-focused strategies are suggested when the probability of stock-outs is high, (iii) no specific location is preferable if a centralized control architecture is implemented, (iv) centralization requires cooperation among partners to achieve the SC optimum point, (v) the producer must not prefer the OPP location at the Retailer level when the general strategy is focused on a decentralized approach