Analiza utjecaja devalvacije kune na stopu rasta BDP-a : Diplomski rad

Cilj ovog istraživanja jest utvrditi postojanje utjecaja devalvacije kune na godišnju stopu rasta BDP-a te stopu inflacije, odnosno na čimbenike koji uzrokuju gospodarski rast ili porast inflacije. TakoĎer je i provedena analiza utjecaja devalvacije na stopu rasta BDP-a per capita iz razloga što je BDP per capita pokazatelj standarda i pokazuje koliko se dobara i usluga proizvede po glavi stanovnika. Dobiveni empirijski rezultati linearne regresije ne mogu se smatrati pouzdanima. Unatoč tome što varijable ispunjavaju odreĎene kriterije, problem se javlja s razinama pouzdanosti svake varijable. Isto vrijedi i za pomoćnu hipotezu gdje je testiran utjecaj devalvacije na opću razinu cijena. Problem samog istraživanja jest u tome što postoji mnogo faktora, koji utječu na tečajne promjene te je stoga potrebno i prilagoĎavati vrstu analize s prikupljenim podacima. Upitno je zapravo koliko bi se vremenski trebala provoditi devalvacija kune kako bi se potaknuo gospodarski rast, a da se s druge strane ne naruši stabilnost cijena u zemlji. Naime, pomoćna hipoteza ukazuje na pojavu inflacije u slučaju trajnije devalvacije kroz nekoliko godina. Stoga, nužno je napomenuti kako je stabilnost cijena temeljni cilj HNB-a i upravo zato su nositelji monetarne politike u RH dosta skeptični oko provoĎenja tečajne devalvacije.The main aim of this research was to analyse the impact of currency devaluation on GDP growth & inflation in Croatia, including the factors that can boost economic growth or inflation. An analysis of the devaluation impact on GDP growth per capita has also been tested as GDP per capita is an indicator of economic standard. Empirical results of multiple linear regression have been shown as uncertain. Namely, all the regressor variables were not statistically significant, although they match linear regression criteria. Same problem is with auxiliary hypothesis. According to the auxiliary hypothesis results, devaluation could also stimulate inflation growth. Problem of this study is that there are many factors that may boost economic growth or inflation. Therefore it is necessary to adjust the type of statistical analysis with the data collected. It is questionable how long central bank should devalue its currency in order to stimulate economic growth, while not disturbing its main policy, the price stability. Auxiliary hypothesis shows that stronger devaluation may cause inflation in couple of years. It is therefore necessary to emphasize that price stability is the fundamental goal of the Croatian central bank and that is why the governor and vice-governors are sceptical about the devaluation of local currency