Efecto especifico a nivel agregado de la venta de alcohol en el indice de mortalidad por infarto de miocardio

myocardial infarction, alcohol sale, ARIMA time series analysis, Belarus, 1970-2006.Background:The pronounced fluctuations in cardiovascular mortality in the countries of the former Soviet Union over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. The mounting evidence suggests that binge drinking pattern is a potentially important contributor to higher cardiovascular mortality rate in the former Soviet republics. There is assumption that if occasional heavy drinking of strong spirits increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality, countries where this is predominant drinking pattern should display positive association between spirits consumption and cardiovascular mortality at the aggregate level. Purpose:To estimate the aggregate level beverage specific effect of alcohol sale on myocardial infarction mortality rate in drinking culture, which combine a higher level of spirits consumption per capita with the explosive drinking pattern. Method:Trends in beverage specific alcohol sale per capita and myocardial infarction mortality rate from 1970 to 2005 in Belarus were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis, ffesu/ts: The results of time series analysis suggest positive relation between strong spirits (vodka) sale per capita and myocardial infarction mortality rate. The analysis suggests that a 1 liter increase in vodka sale per capita would result in a 7.2% increase in myocardial infarction mortality rate (8.2% increase in male mortality and 6.8% increase. Conclusions: the results of the present study suggest a positive relation between vodka sale and myocardial infarction mortality rate at aggregate level and support the hypothesis that binge drinking of strong spirits is a risk factor of myocardial infarction at the individual level