Lithuania's integration into the European Monetary Union: problems and perspectives

Nesėkmingi Lietuvos bandymai prisijungti prie euro zonos leidžia teigti, kad integracija į Europos pinigų sąjungą yra neužtektinai nagrinėta tema, todėl mūsų šalies integracijos į Europos pinigų sąjungą problemų ir perspektyvų identifikavimas, o juo labiau vertinimas, yra ypatingai svarbus. Visų pirma tai aktualu siekiant galutinės sėkmingos integracijos į Europos pinigų sąjungą, galimų rizikų keičiant nacionalinę valiutą ir būsimos naudos pakeitus nacionalinę valiutą identifikavimo. Nėra lengva pasakyti, kodėl Lietuvos makroekonominiai rodikliai konvergencijos kriterijų neatitinka jau nuo 2006 m., kuria kryptimi šie rodikliai keisis ir kokių priemonių reikėtų imtis siekiant jų atitikimo. Todėl straipsnyje analizuojami Lietuvos makroekonominiai rodikliai ir lyginami su konvergencijos kriterijais, nagrinėjama kitų šalių, tokių kaip Slovėnija ir Estija, patirtis. Šios šalys, nepaisant sudėtingos makroekonominės aplinkos, prisijungė prie euro zonos.Unsuccessful attempts to join the euro zone enables the authors to state that Lithuania's integration into the European Monetary Union is an insufficiently researched topic. Identification of the problems and prospects of Lithuania's integration into the European Monetary Union is especially important, because only when the problems are rectified, will it be possible to join the European Monetary Union successfully. It will also be possible to assess the potential risks and benefits of changing the national currency to the euro. Therefore, Lithuanian macroeconomic indicators are analyzed and compared with the convergence criteria. In addition, Estonia's and Slovenia's experience is investigated, because these countries have joined the euro area despite having a difficult macro-economic environment. It should be noted that the establishment of a single currency completed the integration of European countries and preconditioned the belief that joining the European Monetary Union will maintain price stability and a sustainable economic growth. Performed analysis of macro-economic indicators allows the authors to statė that the major risk factor for Lithuania's integration process into the European Monetary Union has been and remains a too high rate of inflation. The main factors influencing the high inflation are a large amount of money in circulation, low inflation control, budget imbalances and a lack of execution about strict fiscal policy. In 2013, it is predicted that Lithuania will have a 2.5 percent inflation rate and the convergence criteria is expected to be equal to 2.6 percent, so the risk that inflation may be uncontrolled remains. In order to finally integrate into the monetary union, the Lithuanian government should pursue strict fiscal policy as well as structural reforms to ensure stability for prices and finance in the government sector. Establishment of the euro would promote foreign investment in the country, reduce unemployment and increase economic welfare