Agricultural Exports To China: Time For A Reality Check?

Many believe that China\u27s admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) early next year will boost export opportunities for Midwestern agriculture. Analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expect China\u27s WTO membership to add $2 billion to the U.S. $50 billion agricultural export market by boosting exports ofgrain, oilseeds and oilseed products. and cotton by 2005. Since 1995 when an eye-opening forecast predicted China would need 200 million metric tons (MMT) of imported grain annually by the year 2015, Midwest farmers have looked forward to helping feed China. Others have observed that China supports 22 percentoftheworld\u27s population on just 9 percent of its arable land, implying that countries with more arable land than people, like the U.S., can expect more export opportunities. But, a review of China\u27s long-term supply and demand for Nebraska\u27s biggest agricultural exports is in order. Long-Term Demand Long-Term Suppl