Propensity to vote (PTV) as a new tool for analyzing electoral behavior

[...] The purpose of this article is to explore the advantages and methodological issues of this approach, applying a PTV measure for analyzing the data of the Lithuanian National Election Study 2016. The first part of the article presents the theoretical and methodological grounds of the PTV measure. The second part reviews the variances and the degree of overlap of the PTVs of the seven biggest Lithuanian parties in the 2016 parliamentary elections. In the third part, the factors of party preferences are analyzed by running separate regression models on the PTVs of the main parties. Finally, in the last part of the paper, the determinants of the preferences of a generic party are analyzed using the stacked matrix. The analysis reveals surprising differences between the determinants of the preferences of different parties in Lithuania. The models with sociodemographic variables (education, income, occupation, age, ethnicity, living place, religiosity and gender) and the attitude toward the Soviet past explain relatively well the propensities to vote for the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats and for the Polish Electoral Action – the League of Families. The preferences for the other five parties, however, are not accounted for by the sociodemographic variables. The models for all parties improve substantially when the evaluation of the economic situation, the perceived level of corruption, the attitudes on Russia and the evaluation of party leaders are added. [...