Forecasting patterns of income tax: comparative analysis

Straipsnyje nagrinėjami ir vertinami pelno mokesčio prognozavimo modeliai. Keliama mokslinė problema – kaip parinkti tinkamiausią prognozavimo modelį pajamoms iš pelno mokesčio prognozuoti. Straipsnio tikslas yra įvertinti prognozavimo modelių taikymo galimybes prognozuojant pajamas iš pelno mokesčio. Tyrime naudoti literatūros analizės ir sintezės, indukcinis, dedukcinis, lyginamasis metodai, grupavimo, palyginimo ir grafinio vaizdavimo būdai; sudarant modelius taikytas matematinis modeliavimas.[...] The research problem is to choose the most appropriate pattern for forecasting income from the income tax. The aim of the article is to assess the options of forecasting pattern application in predicting revenue from the income tax. To achieve the aim the following objectives have been set: to carry out research on patterns offered by scientists and the ones applied in practice; to justify options of their application in predicting revenue from corporate taxation; to put forward the most appropriate pattern of income tax forecast. To solve the scientific problem, the following research methods have been applied: to investigate the theoretical impact of income tax on the government revenue and the whole of forecasting patterns, general science research methods were applied, such as: scientific literature analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison; to assess the impact of income tax on the government revenue – statistical methods of data collection and analysis, Lithuanian legal tax document analysis and synthesis, logical analysis and synthesis were used; for statistical processing and structuring of information, the clustering, comparison, and visualization techniques were applied, and mathematical modeling for pattern building was used. The time of research – the period from 2003 to 2012. The analysis of the income tax impact on the government revenue revealed two scientific approaches: under one consideration - this tax must be withdrawn because it slows down the growth of economics and increases the shadow economy; others argue that the tax is beneficial for the state budget and brings no negative consequences. In the near future, the income tax withdrawal idea will not be implemented in Lithuania, considering an important role it plays on the state yield. This type of tax is one of the four major corporate taxes in Lithuania. During the period, the state income from this tax varied from 6 to 12 per cent. LITMOD tax forecast model is applied in Lithuania; however, the income tax forecast done by it is inaccurate, deviations during the period varied from 2 to 28 per cent. As a scientific issue, the forecast on income tax receipts has been scarcely analysed by researchers. Most research has been carried out by Budryte, Maciulaityte and Ruskyte, Rutkauskas, Navickas. Researchers differentiate the following patterns: macroeconomic, elasticity, micro simulating, extrapolated, and integrated. Macroeconomic models are most often applied in the state taxation forecast, income included. By applying these patterns, it was established that basic macroeconomic data, namely: labour, capital, products and services, finance, and foreign trade, have impact on corporate profits. [...