Systematic quantitative analysis of the January uprising (1863) in Lithuania

The article is dedicated to systematic quantitative analysis of the January Uprising in Lithuania. The research is based on the methodology for the classification of world wars and identification of war parameters refined in the course of the quantitative world war investigation project “Correlates of War” pursued in the United States since 1963. As the typology of world wars proposed by the “Correlates of War” project defines the January Uprising as the Second Polish War, the key objective of the research was to answer the question whether the war in Lithuania, similarly to that in the Polish Kingdom, satisfies the criteria of the “Correlates of War” project and how it should be presented in the global classification of wars. The aim of the armed January Uprising in Poland and Lithuania was to break free from the Russian Empire and re-establish the state of Poland and Lithuania which ceased to exist in 1795, namely the confederate Commonwealth of Both Nations. The war was fought between the Russian Empire – the state that was part of the cross-border system – and two historically and ethnically different geopolitical subjects (units) situated at the periphery of the Empire – the annexed parts of the eliminated state, namely the Polish Kingdom and Lithuania. In accordance with the criteria for the beginning and ending of a war as defined by the “Correlates of War” project, the joint uprising of Poland and Lithuania against Russia broke out on January 22, 1863 and Lithuania joined the uprising on February 4, 1863 – on that day the first battle of local insurgents took place – and was followed by other battles of Lithuanian insurgents with intervals not exceeding 30-day periods. The end of the Uprising in Lithuania is considered the date of the battle of January 20, 1864. In total the Uprising in Lithuania lasted for 11 months and 14 days (10 months and 10 days in Kaunas Governorate; 9 months and 16 days in V ilnius Governorate; 5 months and 8 days in Grodno Governorate; 4 months and 28 days in Minsk Governorate; 15 days in V itebsk Governorate; and 6 days in Mogilev Governorate). Qualified calculations suggest that some 38 695 people could have fought in the ranks of Lithuanian insurgents. The intensity of the Uprising based on the numbers of participants was the highest in Kaunas Governorate – 2.6 times higher than in V ilnius Governorate; 1.7 times higher than in Grodno Governorate; 4.1 times higher than in Minsk Governorate; 23.2 times higher than in Mogilev Governorate; and 156.3 times higher than in V itebsk Governorate. In total 225 squads of insurgents fought in Lithuania, 203 of them were formed locally. There were 34 local squads in V ilnius Governorate; 100 – in Kaunas Governorate; 37 – in Grodno Governorate; 24 – in Minsk Governorate; 6 – in Mogilev Governorate; and 2 – in V itebsk Governorate. 418 battles were fought in the territory of Lithuania (368 that fall within the definition of war criteria as proposed by the “Correlates of War” project and excluding battles fought by Polish forces in the territory of Lithuania). Comparison of the number of battles with the Polish Kingdom based on Stanisław Zieliński’s data suggests that the intensity of battles in Lithuania in 1863 was 1.9 times lower than in Poland and in 84 1864 – 10.6 times lower than in Poland which in fact means than in the latter year the Uprising was no longer in progress. The number of fatalities related to the battles and identified in the course of the research gives reasonable grounds to view the Uprising in Lithuania as a war. In the period of fighting number of such fatalities in Lithuania reached 6816 or 6338 fatalities as defined by the criteria of the “Correlates of War” project in the period in question and excluding the fatalities in the Polish forces that fought in the territory of Lithuania. 92.3 per cent of the total battle related fatalities were the insurgents and 7.7 per cent were Russian soldiers. Kaunas Governorate stands out from all governorates of the Northwestern Region with 51 per cent of fatalities. The conducted analysis of the Uprising allows the proposition that the reference to the January Uprising as the second Polish War, as suggested by the quantitative project for the investigation of world wars “Correlates of War”, is historically incorrect. According to the tradition of the “Correlates of War” project, the January Uprising should be referred to as the Second Russian Polish-Lithuanian War in the global classification of wars. Besides, it is necessary that the January Uprising is termed by a common name in historiography. It would be rational to refer to the joint uprising of Poland and Lithuania using terms that emphasize the beginning of the Uprising: the Uprising of 1863 or the January Uprising. Such terms would embed single benchmark in world historiography and would also be related to different ending of the Uprising in different territories