Lietuvos eksporto tendencijos ir ekonometriniai modeliai

Akcentuojant eksporto svarbą Lietuvos ūkiui, straipsnyje nagrinėjamos Lietuvos eksporto tendencijos. Taikant ekonometrinę analizę, įvertinamas eksporto (egzogeniškumo) vaidmuo modeliuojant ryšius tarp eksporto ir bendrojo vidaus produkto bei jo sudedamųjų dalių išlaidų požiūriu. Pateikiami eksporto paklausos modeliai pagal pagrindines prekybos partneres ir kiekybiškai įvertinamas užsienio šalies aktyvumo bei kainų rodiklių vaidmuo eksporto paklausai atskiruose regionuose. Nagrinėjamos Lietuvos eksporto konkurencingumo kitimo tendencijos bei ekonometriškai įvertinamas tiesioginių užsienio investicijų ir santykinių kainų poveikis konkurencingumui. Taip pat pateikiamas ekonometrinis modelis reeksportui per Lietuvą įvertinti. Atliktos analizės pagrindu suformuojami siūlymai, kaip prognozuoti Lietuvos eksportą.The paper describes the trends in Lithuanian exports and examines the importance of the export-led growth hypothesis for Lithuania. Tests for weak and strong exogeneity based on Granger causality in the export–GDP (and its expenditure components) system are presented in order to evaluate the long-run exogeneity of exports with respect to the cointegration vector and adjustment parameters. Strong statistical support for export exogeneity and the export-led growth hypothesis is found in Lithuania even in the short run, meaning that export forecasts can be formed separately from the said system without negatively affecting the efficiency of parameter estimates and the predictive performance of the model. In the second part of the article, the impact of such export determinants as foreign demand, the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment is analysed econometrically and their relative importance for Lithuanian exports in different markets is established. There is clear evidence that relatively huge foreign direct investment is the most important factor of relatively heavy Lithuanian exports to Nordic countries, causing a steady increase in the Lithuanian export share in the imports of these countries. In Western Europe, this factor is of great importance too, nevertheless the economic activity here is the most important determinant of exports. The influence of the real exchange rate is only negligible in these markets. It is, however, the most important determinant of the Lithuanian exports to the former Soviet Union countries, namely, Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine