Evaluation of risk and uncertainty in the industrial business projects

Šio straipsnio tikslas pasiūlyti rizikos analizės metodiką ir rizikos valdymo modelį, adekvačiai tinkančius pramoninio pobūdžio verslo projektams, pateikiant tokiems projektams adekvačią įvairių rizikos rūsių klasifikaciją. Be to straipsnyje analizuojami tokie rizikos analizės metodai, kaip jautrumo analizė, nenuostolingumo analizė, formalizuotas neapibrėžtumo aprašymas, remiantis scenarijų analise ir Monte-Karlo metodu nagrinėjami rizikos sumažinimo metodai, tokie kaip rizikos draudimas, dalinių rizikų neutralizavimas, rizikos paskirstymas tarp projekto dalyvių, rizikos sumažinimas finansavimo planavimu.Lithuania's economy transformation to a market economy extremely increased enterprise's risk. Transition from producer market to consumer market caused the implementation of technological innovation in construction business. It needs long-term investments. So the management of such investment (investment projects) risk is the problem of today. In the first part of the paper deals with identifying conceptual problems of risk and uncertainty definition as well as indicators for the quantities risk management. Opinions of some authors are discussed and assessed for being suitable for structuring total risks accordingly its main streams. Risk management problems are discussed in the paper further. Some aspects of the application of the risk management ideology which is thought as risk analysis and risk reeducation by using various methods are discussed. Risk analysis includes methods as sensitivity analysis, breakeven point analysis, mathematical programming methods, scenario analysis, Monte-Carlo technique and others. There are many types of risks in business. Risks can be classified as external unforeseeable risks, external foreseeable (but not determined) risks, operating risks, technical risks, legal risks and others. The first step in risk management is the risk analysis, and then follows the application of risk reduction methods