Predictability of the national debt

Pastaraisiais dešimtmečiais daugelyje pasaulio šalių spartėja valstybės skolos prieaugis ir aštrėja biudžeto deficito problema. Praeityje valstybės skolos augdavo dažniausiai iškilus grėsmei šalies saugumui arba ekonominio nuosmukio metu. Tuo tarpu šiuo metu daugelyje šalių valstybės skolinimasis yra neišvengiamas ir skolintos lėšos dažnai naudojamos paskatinti ekonominį augimą. Kai valstybės išlaidos tampa didesnės nei pajamos, šį skirtumą valstybė būna priversta dažniausiai dengti skolintomis lėšomis. Dėl tokio skolinimosi atsiradę valstybės įsiskolinimai, ir kiti finansiniai įsipareigojimai valstybės vardu formuoja valstybės skolą. Šalies skolinimasis yra socialinės ekonominės politikos įrankis. Vyriausybė, valdydama skolą, prisiimdama įsipareigojimus, gali remti tam tikras ūkio šakas arba socialines grupes ir taip siekti savo politinės programos tikslų. Vyriausybės skolinimosi poreikis – tai per biudžetinius metus susidariusi vyriausybės išlaidų suma, kurią numatoma finansuoti skolintomis lėšomis. Staipsnyje analizuojamis pagrindiniai vyriausybės skolinimosi poreikį lemiantys veiksniai. Vienas pagrindinių būdų tenkinti vyriausybės pasiskolinamų lėšų poreikiui, yra vyriausybės vertybinių popierių (VVP) leidimas. Straipsnyje analizuojamas šių priemonių taikymo poveikis šalies ekonominiams procesams priklausomai nuo to, kas perka šiuos vertybinius popierius.As expenses exceed income, the state is usually forced to cover his difference by borrowed means. Due to the borrowing of this kind, the loans and other financial duties carried in the name of the state create the ground for the national debt.The governments of European countries should pay more attention to the relationship between the national debt and GDP growth, which would enable the states to better plan the demand for the borrowed means without exceeding the set limits because the increase in debt shows that the limits of net borrowing for financing the forecasted budget deficit are not sufficient to minimize the negative influence of the state debt to the economy. The aim of this article is, a possibility to forecast the limits of the national debt acceptability, knowing the forecasted actual GDP growth and the value of the budget deficit. It is important to learn what level of the fiscal deficit is acceptable to the state and how it could be managed under certain economical conditions. In making a choice for the criteria needed to determine the acceptable level of the budget deficit, it is indispensable to make a notice of the possibility to apply those criteria, e.g. in analyzing and forecasting. The present article analyzes the interaction between the national debt and the budget deficit. The article concentrates on a scientific problem, i.e. a capability to make prognosis related to the limits for a state borrowing acceptability when a real foreseen growth of GDP and an estimate of the budget deficit are known. It is important to know the level of fiscal deficit, which is acceptable for the country, and in what way the mentioned deficit should be managed under certain economical conditions. To select criteria for the acceptable budget deficit level it is necessary to take into account a capability to use them, i.e. to make analysis and prognosis. The major focus of this article is on a number of factors that determine the acceptability of the national debt as well as its optimal and effective management. Borrowing is one of the easiest methods for the governments to cover the budget deficit, though the government borrowing made in attempt to support the development of the economy cannot be seen as separate from the state fiscal and monetary policy. The article analyzes the interaction between the national debt and the budget deficit. Within the framework of the mathematical model covered in detail, the author proposes the evaluation of the debt limits of the Lithuanian government by drawing on principle economic variables. Object of the article - the Lithuanian national debt and budget deficit.Purpose of the article - using a mathematical model to reveal the forecasting possibilities of public debt.To summarize the above, it may be pointed out that by making appropriate changes and adapting the mathematical model the following issues related to the management of the national debt may be solved: to identify the acceptable level of the budget deficit (GDP %) in accordance with the obligatory level of the national debt and the forecast of the GDP growth; to identify the level of the national debt in accordance with the determined level of the budget deficit and the forecast of the GDP growth; to identify the acceptable rate of the economical growth in accordance with the forecasted level of the budget deficit and the acceptable level of the national debt; to determine the period during which the determined values could be achieved. Research methods: analysis and summation scientific literature, mathematical modeling and analysis of statistical rates