Predicting Regeneration Establishment with the Prognosis Model

Conifer establishment following regeneration timber harvests is predicted by version 2 of the Regeneration Establishment Model, a submodel of the Prognosis Model. The regeneration model covers 10 species for forests in Montana, central Idaho, and northern Idaho. Most harvest and site preparation methods can be simulated so that alternative treatments can be evaluated. Also included in the model is the influence of western spruce budworm (Choristoneura accidentalis) on regeneration success. The model predicts the probability of stocking, seedling density, species composition, and seedling heights 2 to 20 years after harvest. This paper describes the study design, equation development, model formulation, and model behavior for the Regeneration Establishment Model