The Timing of Births: A Marriage Market Analysis

We argue that one of the key channels linking the labor and marriage markets is the decision of when to become a parent. We develop an equilibrium model of marriage, divorce, and human capital accumulation that allows for differential timing of fertility. We calibrate the model to US panel data and analyze the effects of raising women’s wages relative to men’s, and increasing the rate of return to experience for women. We find that an increase in the returns to experience for women is causes an increase in fraction of children born to women over age 30, and that raising women’s wages reduces marriage rates