Simulation of the competitive effects of a horizontal merger in the iron ore industry

During recent years the iron ore industry has experienced a continuous consolidation trend following increased merger and acquisition activities. Analysing and evaluating these mergers is important in order to establish potential effects. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the price effects caused by the merger between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000. The merger was cleared by the European Commission, as well as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, shortly after its announcement. The analysis will be conducted using a simulation model based on a proportionality calibrated almost ideal demand system, which uses the premerger situation in order to estimate the post-merger outcome. The relevant market is defined using shipments data. This is followed by the simulation model applied to the defined relevant market. The results show that the concentration on the market, given by the HHI, increases approximately 15 per cent, and that the market share of the new company's reaches almost 20 per cent. Compared to the Commission's assessment the results indicate a more concentrated market and thus a higher concern for possible competitive effects. Furthermore, the results suggest that the predicted average market price increase from the merger is 1.6 per cent. However, the merged firm is able to increase their average price by 5.1 per cent.Godkänd; 2005; 20070601 (ysko)