OCTA 2009: EU Organised Crime & Threat Assessment

In response to ‘The Hague Programme’, three OCTA (2006, 2007 and 2008 OCTA) have been produced and, combined with the ensuing Council Conclusions, have already had a significant impact on law enforcement throughout Europe. This fourth OCTA represents another important step forward in consolidating this proactive and EU-wide approach in combatting OC. The 2009 OCTA aims to be a significant milestone in the assessment of the OC threat, bringing into the same context the structural and functional features of the OC groups and the dynamics of which they are part or that can be exploited by them. Such assessment is carried out with the aim of identifying criminal ‘combinations’ that are shaping the OC dynamics in the whole EU or significant parts of it, so that the ensuing conclusions are relevant beyond the borders of individual Member States (MS) and complement priorities based on national threat assessments. This approach is reflected in the structure of the OCTA. First of all, criminal markets are briefly explored, refraining from reiterating known situations in full, and focusing instead on emerging issues and new trends, with the aim of better outlining the environment in which OC groups operate and the opportunities that are or may be exploited by them. Then, the EU criminal hubs are described through the assessment of their characteristics and possible evolution, and through the analysis of the interaction between OC groups and criminal activities occuring within and among the hubs. Finally, the capabilities and intentions of OC groups active in the EU are analysed. This analysis derives from an evolved typology of OC groups based on their features, strategies and fields of action as reported by MS. This analysis also contributes to the improvement of the typology itself, thus initiating and perpetuating a cycle, which is typical of intelligence activities. Money laundering (ML) and important side issues such as the criminal situation in West Africa and the present economic crisis are treated in dedicated sections of the document, as they request a special and asymmetric interest. The OCTA is based on a multi-source approach, including law enforcement and non-law enforcement contributions. It helps to close the gap between strategic findings and operational activities but, in suggesting strategic priorities, it is not intended to be so detailed as to pinpoint specific criminal investigations. The OCTA is always being enhanced. Methodological questions and other issues are continuously being addressed in close co-operation with the Member States.The methodology and procedures for its completion have been amended, and this has had a positive result in terms of quality of the contributions submitted to the report and the way in which the contributions are analysed. Overall, the changes which have been introduced have all contributed to enhancing the quality of the OCTA. The OCTA does not cover terrorism or terrorist networks