Predicting Early Mild Cognitive Impairment With Free Recall: The Primacy of Primacy.

OBJECTIVES: Serial position effects have been found to discriminate between normal and pathological aging, and to predict conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Different scoring methods have been used to estimate the accuracy of these predictions. In the current study, we investigated delayed primacy as predictor of progression to early MCI over established diagnostic memory methods. We also compared three serial position methods (regional, standard and delayed scores) to determine which measure is the most sensitive in differentiating between individuals who develop early MCI from a baseline of cognitively intact older adults. METHOD: Data were analyzed with binary logistic regression and with receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Baseline serial position scores were collected using the Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test and used to predict conversion to early MCI. The diagnosis of early MCI was obtained through statistical algorithm and consequent consensus conference. One hundred and ninety-one participants were included in the analyses. All participants were aged 60 or above and cognitively intact at baseline. RESULTS: The binary logistic regression showed that delayed primacy was the only predictor of conversion to early MCI, when compared to total and delayed recall. ROC curves showed that delayed primacy was still the most sensitive predictor of progression to early MCI when compared to other serial position measures. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are consistent with previous studies and support the hypothesis that delayed primacy may be a useful cognitive marker of early detection of neurodegeneration