Study on National Skills Outlook

본 연구는 인적자원의 양성과 활용을 숙련의 관점에서 조망하고, 숙련과 관련한 질적인 정보를 찾기 위해 10년 동안 추진하는 사업 중 4년차 사업이다. 본 연구의 목적은 인적자원의 양성과 활용을 숙련의 관점에서 조망할 질적인 숙련정보 생성의 틀을 마련함과 동시에 숙련조사에 바탕을 둔 숙련전망의 틀을 마련하는 데 있다. 이러한 목적은 연도별 계획에 따라 추진되며, 금년의 추진 목표는 2012년에 수립된 10년간 연구의 종합적인 틀에 따라 숙련수요 및 공급에 대한 조사와 숙련전망을 위한 지수 및 모형을 개발하기 위한 기초 분석을 하는데 초점이 맞추어진다.The study aims to investigate the formation and utilization of human resources in the view of the employers and skill supply of workers, and to collect and analyze qualitative information about skills. This study is the forth-year report of the ten-year project pursued by KRIVET from 2010 to 2019. The main areas of this study are skill surveys and skill forecasting. The key contents of this project are composed of three parts: two skill surveys about employers and individuals, the development of skill mismatch index, and the establishment of model to forecast the demand for skills and supply of skills. This report is composed of four parts to consider the contents of this project. Frist, we rearranged the theoretical foundation that we had discussed since 2010. Second, based on the theoretical foundation, we practiced the survey about employer and worker, and analyzed the results of the survey. Third, we explored the relevance of forecasting skill demand and supply. Finally, this study drove the alternative plans for skill survey and skill projection. The first part sets up the framework about the concept and measurement of skills. The theoretical foundation is based of the definition that ‘skill is individual ability to make some performance through working in their job.’ This definition means that skill is affected by the individual competency as well as the structure of organization or economical status. Based on this definition, we classified skill into three types: cognitive skills, functional skills (or technical skills), and cooperative skills. Also, in order to observe skill mismatch (or skill disequilibrium) in the labor market, we examined the concepts that are related to skills shortage and skills gap in the view of skill demand, as well as over-education (or under-education) and skill obsolescence in the view of skill supply. And, based on this theoretical foundation, we suggested the framework for skill survey and the model for forecasting skill demand and supply. The second part looks over employers and workers of the manufacturing industry, and analyzes the collected data from two surveys. The questionnaires were composed of 29 items for employer survey and 21 items for worker survey based on the theoretical foundation. The contents of questionnaire for the employer survey are composed of five areas such as skills shortage with relation to recruitment, skills gap with relation to incumbent workers, education/training and qualification, and management environment and technology. And, the contents of questionnaire for the worker survey is composed of three areas: human capital level for observing overeducation or undereducation, skills gap, and skill obsolescence. The surveys were made by interviewing 2,603 employers and 2,023 workers of establishments in the manufacturing industry on the basis of the stylized questionnaires. Contact with employers and workers was held through the web-site and telephone. The main results of the employer survey showed that the large enterprises are facing of skills shortage as well as skills gap in the occupations of high skill, while small and medium enterprises are facing manpower shortage in the occupations of low skill. This means that skill polarization between the high skill of large enterprises and the low skill of small enterprises are serious in the labor market. Similarly, although firms have skill shortage or manpower shortage, they are too weak to solve problems through education and training of workers. Also, the results of the worker survey showed that they hardly have any overeducation (or undereducation) and skills gap. While workers are interested in their skill upgrading but the rate that they take part in education and training is really low. Also, skill obsolescence was relatively serious to workers who received higher level of education as well as more experienced workers, and to females. However, the worker survey need to solve the sample selection problem as well as to overcome the limit of pilot survey. Next, we practiced in-dept study based on the 2012 survey and 2013 survey. The employer survey showed that skills shortage in recruitment is affecting skills gap of incumbent workers, and this phenomenon is more serious in the small enterprises. This means that small and medium enterprises are facing skilled worker’s recruitment, and as the result, they are experiencing low skill equilibrium trap. Skills shortage was affected by one or two causes of several elements. And, technical skills are more important in the service industry compared to cooperation skills, while the significant level of technical skills was lower in the manufacturing industry. On the other hand, the results of worker survey showed several facts. Firms that have manpower shortage and skills gap were employing workers of low wage and short experience. Overeducation or undereducation is lower in firms that need the firm specific skills, while horizontal matching (major-job matching) was better in firms that have low skills gap and workers of large size. Also, wage is positively related to variables such as matching between education and tasks, experience, and skill level. While on the contrary, wage is negatively related to matching between technical (or crafts) and tasks, and females. And, skill obsolescence was the positive relation with the variables such as matching between education and tasks, marriage, education and training, the change of technology, the size of firms, the amounts of sale, and investment of equipment, while it is relatively related to the variables such as wage, product demand, and operating profit. Considering these analysis, we suggested five policies to facilitate development and utilization of skills: First is to establish incentive systems such as human capital contracts for bringing up and utilizing skilled labor. The human capital contract is the scheme of market mechanism that training institutes bring up workers of high skill through contract with a firm while the firm bears the training cost and employ trained worker. Second is to strengthen the linkage between education/training and employment. Third is to introduce the gap year scheme for job experience that enforces the potentiality of job matching after students finish their school years. Fourth is to reestablish skill development system of service area. The productivity of service sector is very important to upgrade economic development, because the worker rate of the service sector is very high in Korea. Fifth is to set up a new recognition system that ensures the results of learning through skill development for high skill workers as well as workers of high value-added service sector. The third part contains basic analysis to explore the possibility of skill projection based on manpower projection and statistics. The results of discussion were arranged by four issues. First, it was difficult to use vacancies and skill shortage vacancies for forecasting skill demand and supply. To capture qualitative mismatch of vacancies the time series data with relation to skill mismatch is necessary, but we haven’t accumulated it. Second, the statistics were not enough to drive the projection results based on detailed data such as industry, occupation, and region. Third, it was difficult to make indices about labor market mismatch and skill mismatch. Data about vacancies and unemployment are crucial to producing these indices, but in the statistics of Korea, the unemployment rate is not classified by industry, and occupation. Fourth, we could not to forecast skill demand and supply on the ground of the existing manpower projection. To forecast skill demand and supply, it is very important to find the exact information of skills. The final part examines the means that we have to consider importantly in next year study. This report suggested four elements to improve the establishment of the skill survey and the projection model of skill. First is to correct the questionnaire of the skill survey. In the existing survey, the relationship between skills shortage or skills gap and training was not clearly revealed in both the statistical analysis and the empirical study. Second is to set up the worker pilot survey again. The skill survey needs to include unemployed labor except the incumbent workers. Also, the connected analysis between firm and worker is very significant as the analysis results of this year survey show. Third is to develop the index with relation to skill mismatch. Since it is difficult to develop the mismatch index due to insufficiency of statistics, we need to make the index of skill mismatch based on the time series data of skill survey. The final element is to set up the model of skill projection. In order to model skill projection, we need to connect between method of manpower projection and skill information. Moreover, we need to improve manpower projection method based on elements such as skill mismatch index, matrix between skill and tasks, and education level.요약 xv 제1장 서 론_1 제1절 연구 필요성 및 목적3 제2절 연구 내용5 제3절 연구 추진 방법7 제4절 연구 범위 및 한계9 제2장 숙련전망의 이론적 기초_11 제1절 숙련의 정책적 함의14 제2절 노동시장 불일치 및 불일치 지수26 제3절 숙련불일치34 제4절 숙련전망 모형46 제3장 숙련 조사 및 기초 분석_55 제1절 조사의 기본 틀58 제2절 조사지 구성80 제3절 숙련수요조사 결과90 제4절 숙련공급조사 결과146 제4장 숙련의 실태 분석_175 제1절 채용과 재직자의 숙련부족178 제2절 숙련의 부족과 원인203 제3절 근로자-고용주 특성214 제4절 임금과 숙련퇴화233 제5장 숙련 측정과 전망을 위한 탐색_245 제1절 숙련부족의 현황과 특성248 제2절 숙련불일치: 지수 생성을 위한 점검255 제3절 인력수급전망264 제4절 숙련전망: 전공­직업행렬285 제6장 결 론_297 제1절 도전과 숙련 정책299 제2절 조사 결과의 함의302 제3절 숙련전망의 쟁점311 제4절 향후 과제 313 SUMMARY_317 참고문헌_325 부 록_335 1. 내생적 성장이론 및 인력수급전망모형337 2. 설문지353 3. 조사결과38