HUBUNGAN TIMBAL BALIK ANTARA KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DAN NILAI TUKAR DI INDONESIA

ABSTRACT GHIFANI AZHAR. The Nexus of Exchange Rate on Tourist Arrivals, The Case of in Indonesia. Economics Education, Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta, in 2018. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of exchange rates on the tourist arrivals in the case of Indonesia. In the middle of accretion tourist arrival receipt, and exchange rates vulnerability. Using monthly time series data from 2004 to 2016, we identify cyclical component of the two variables using Hodrik- Prescott filtering method. The standard econometric time series procedures are applied to the cyclical components covering correlation, VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model, and Granger causality test. The results shows that the relationship between exchange rate and tourist arrival is counter-cyclical indicated by insignificant coefficient of correlation. Granger causality test proves that causality running from tourist arrivals to exchange rates. Those results are supported by VAR model. Using Impulse Response Function, we found that the exchange rate shocks move toward the amount of tourist arrivals. In the long run, we conclude that tourist arrivals can stabilize exchange rates. Keywords: tourist arrivals, exchange rate, counter-cyclica