Using geostatistics and multicriteria spatial analysis to map forest species biogeophysical suitability: a study case for the Centro Region of Portugal

There are various methodologies for defining soil uses to promote sustainable utilization of rural land. Many of these methods rely on decision support systems based on multicriteria spatial analysis. In this study, a two-step spatial approach was performed to produce forest species suitability maps. The objectives of the study were: (1) to produce bioclimatic indices maps using a geostatistical approach based on climate data; (2) to produce biogeophysical suitability maps for the main Portuguese forest species by multicriteria spatial analysis using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) integrating three factors (terrain slope, soil diagnostic features and bioclimatic indices); and (3) to con- duct a comparative analysis of the current forest species area distributions to these species biogeophysical suitability areas. With these objectives, the Centro region of Portugal was used as the study area. Our methodological approach allowed us to assess the biogeophysical suitability of Maritime pine, Eucalyptus, Cork oak and Holm oak in the Centro region of Portugal. The findings in this study emphasize the potential that the Centro region of Portugal has for expanding the spread of native oaks as recommended by the National Strategy for Forests to respond to climate changes, improve landscape biodiversity and mitigate fire hazards. The species biogeophysical suitability maps may be important tools for decision support in landscape planning to define species priority afforestation areas. From an instrumental point of view, the use of this methodology may interest stakeholders and others with roles in planning and land management. Further investigation is needed to integrate the impact of climate change in forest species spatial modeling to assist in supporting future national strategies for forests.