The Relationship between Taiwan's Real Estate Investments and Economic Growth：Using the Aggregate, Industry and Government Investment Datum to Analyze

[[abstract]]本研究首先試圖澄清外界在說明「不動產投資」時，所指稱的意義、相關產業參與者以及試圖解釋形成活動相關數值之歷史變化，此部分分別介紹了以民間為主導的住宅房屋、不動產業生產毛額、營造業生產毛額、不動產業（建商）的存貨、產壽險業的投資性不動產，以及與政府較為相關的公共建設、民間參與、政府營建工程；接著本文透過不動產投資相關數據分析不動產投資對於經濟成長率的影響，發現民間部分不管是總合的住宅房屋，還是不動產業建商的存貨金額，其年增率皆與當年度經濟成長率呈現正向相關，且正向影響隔年經濟成長，政府部分的公共建設支出預算以及政府營建工程也顯著正向影響下一年之經濟成長率；本研究反過來使用落後一期之經濟成長率，探討對於當期不動產投資相關數據的影響效果，研究發現落後一期之經濟成長率對於當期之住宅房屋投資以及建商存貨年增率呈正顯著影響，於政府部分也確實符合凱因斯財政政策操作方式，負向顯著地影響政府所編列的公共建設支出預算，特別是在民間參與部分尤為明顯，而政府整體營建工程年增率則是受到落後一期經濟成長率正向顯著的影響。最後透過穩健性檢驗的格蘭傑因果關係檢驗、向量自迴歸模型、衝擊反應函數以及變異數分解進行測試，其結果進一步穩健了民間參與以及政府營建年增率與經濟成長率之間的關係。[[abstract]]This study first attempts to clarify the meaning of the alleged “real estate investment”, the relevant industry participants and the historical changes in the numerical values associated with trying to explain the formation activities. This section introduces the mainly with private enterprise residential housing, gross production of real estate industry, gross production of construction industry, inventory of real estate industry (builders), Insurance’s investment property, and more related to the government’s public construction, private participation in infrastructure projects, government construction projects. Then, through the analysis of real estate investment data, this paper analyzes the impact of real estate investment on economic growth rate, and finds that the part of mainly with private enterprise, whether it is the combined residential housing or the inventory value of the real estate industry builders, its annual growth rate is positive with the current economic growth rate, and positively affects the economic growth of the next year. The government's public construction expenditure budget and government construction projects also significantly positive affect the economic growth rate of the next year. This study, in turn, uses the economic growth rate of the previous year to explore the impact of the current data on real estate investment. The study find that the economic growth rate of the previous year is positive for the current residential housing investment and the annual growth rate of builders’ inventory. The government part also meets the Keynes fiscal policy operation mode, the economic growth rate significantly negative affects the government's public construction expenditure budget, especially in the part of private participation, and the annual growth rate of the government construction project is positively affected by the previous year economic growth rate. Finally, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model, impulse response function and variance decomposition were tested by robustness test. The results further stabilize the relationship between private participation with economic growth rate and the annual growth rate of government construction with economic growth rate.[[note]]碩