The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in northeast spain

This paper evaluates the response of streamflow in a Mediterranean medium-scaled basin under land-use and climate change scenarios and its plausible implication on the management of Boadella–Darnius reservoir (NE Spain). Land cover and climate change scenarios supposed over the next several decades were used to simulate reservoir inflow using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) and to analyze the future impacts on water management (2021–2050). Results reveal a clear decrease in dam inflow (−34%) since the dam was operational from 1971 to 2013. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar decrease (−31%) from 2021 to 2050. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by water authorities and the projected decrease in reservoir’s inflows, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.This research was funded by LIFE Programme| EU LIFE (LIFE12ENV/ES/000536). We would like to thank the Spanish Meteorological State Agency (AEMET), the Meteorologica Service of Catalonia (MeteoCat-SMC), and the Agència Catalana del Aigua (ACA) for providing the climatic and streamflow databases used in this study. This work has been supported by research projects: “LIFE12 ENV/ES/000536-Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (LIFE MEDACC)”, financed by the LIFE programme of the European Commission; PCIN-2015-220 and CGL2014-52135-C03-01, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; IMDROFLOOD, financed by the Water Works 2014, INDECIS, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and also funded by FORMAS (Sweden), DLR(Germany), BMWFW(Austria), IFD (Denmark), MINECO(Spain), and ANR (France), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).Peer reviewe