Detecting and Locating Precursory Signals During the 2011 El Hierro, Canary Islands, Submarine Eruption

Forecasting and monitoring submarine volcanic eruptions represent a particular challenge due to the lack of direct surface observations. In the present study, we investigate the dynamics of the 2011 El Hierro submarine eruption using phase autocorrelation and cross-correlation from 2 years of continuous seismic records. Time evolution analysis of the waveform similarity allows us to clearly identify different preeruptive phases of this new volcano, as well as three magmatic intrusions that occurred in 2012. We use probabilistic sensitivity kernels to locate the places of the highest dynamics within the magmatic accumulation zone and the extinct volcanic area of Tiñor that might have acted as stress barriers, guiding the magma from the North of El Hierro Island to the final eruption site at the South. Our results highlight the potential of ambient noise methods to monitor volcanic hazard and unrest even with sparse data sets and limited knowledge of the region. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.Pilar Sánchez-Pastor acknowledges funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (project MISTERIOS, CGL2013-48601-C2-2-R).Peer reviewe