Nanoresponsible development : framing a model of innovation market uptake of nano-enabled products

A large part of the literature on diffusion of innovation focuses on its adoption. Very little research asks why discontinuance occurs, or why a particular innovation fails after having been adopted before. Understanding the issue of rejection of innovation in a situation of uncertainty about environmental and safety risks, can be crucial in designing future responsible and commercially successful nanotechnological innovations. The goal of the current research is to provide a framework for future studies on determinants of market adoption of innovation in conditions of uncertainty about environmental and safety risks. Specifically, the aim is to give a framework to assess if and to what extent an innovation diffusion process is influenced by new scientific knowledge regarding risks, in a situation of uncertainty regarding these risks. Indeed, it is suggested that consumers might be disillusioned with innovations as a consequence of new scientific knowledge about their safety (hazard) and harmful side-effects [1]. Unfavorable new scientific knowledge acts as a negative demand shock which might influence an eventual adoption of innovation (for example, through market potential). To our knowledge, despite the economic importance of this issue, the link between new scientific knowledge and adoption (rejection) of innovations is poorly documented. After surveying different options, we discuss our proposed methodology: our approach is to identify an appropriate case study with no early concerns about health and/or environmental risks of a past innovation, but with further introduction of new scientific information about the hazard. In the given context, a case study of the chemical Bisphenol A, which has been widely used to make plastics for more than 50 years and this now being phased out in the EU and elsewhere [2], is proposed to test empirically the hypothesis about the impact of new scientific knowledge about risks on the rate of sales growth as a first step. A fundamental Bass model provides a framework for the current research [3]. While a basic diffusion model of innovation assumes a constant market potential, in practice this assumption seems unrealistic [4]. As a result an extension of the model that relaxes the mentioned assumption and that includes new scientific knowledge proxies is developed in order to test the given hypothesis. As a second step, it is suggested to adapt the model tested with Bisphenol A for nano-industry to help nanotechnology firms prevent rejection of innovation by the market and adjust their strategies accordingly. Therefore, we will work on a second case–study corresponding to an innovative nano-enabled product currently being introduced on the market, to contribute not only to better knowledge for nanoresponsible development but also to the emerging literature on the management of uncertainty.development : framing a model of innovation market uptake of nano-enabled product