Analyzing Rice Demand and Supply Behavior for Food Availability: a System Dynamics Framework (Case Study: Sub-Regional Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo)

Food availability is a cross-cutting issue that has become a national issue as the impact of food insecurity in several regions in Indonesia. Current popular of staple food in Indonesia is still dominated by rice, so that the Indonesian population demand on rice is still very high. This led to the dominance of rice food availability in Indonesia become unbalanced. Therefore, it is important for the government to maintain the food availability in each region in order to sustain national food availability. To support these efforts, in this research, we developed system dynamics model to analyze the behavior of the supply and demand of rice in the sub-regional Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo with the consideration that rice demand of these three regions merged into one division and has greatest value when compared with the demand from other divisions in East Java. System dynamics framework is utilized based on consideration that the relationship factors that affect supply and demand of rice are non-linear and dynamic. The expected outcome of this research is a system dynamic model of rice demand and supply based on the existing condition and several policy scenarios to ensure food availability in these three sub-regionals