Statistical Similarities Between WSA‐ENLIL+Cone Model and MAVEN in Situ Observations From November 2014 to March 2016

Normal solar wind flows and intense solar transient events interact directly with the upper Martian atmosphere due to the absence of an intrinsic global planetary magnetic field. Since the launch of the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, there are now new means to directly observe solar wind parameters at the planet’s orbital location for limited time spans. Due to MAVEN’s highly elliptical orbit, in situ measurements cannot be taken while MAVEN is inside Mars’ magnetosheath. To model solar wind conditions during these atmospheric and magnetospheric passages, this research project utilized the solar wind forecasting capabilities of the WSA‐ENLIL+Cone model. The model was used to simulate solar wind parameters that included magnetic field magnitude, plasma particle density, dynamic pressure, proton temperature, and velocity during a four Carrington rotation‐long segment. An additional simulation that lasted 18 Carrington rotations was then conducted. The precision of each simulation was examined for intervals when MAVEN was in the upstream solar wind, that is, with no exospheric or magnetospheric phenomena altering in situ measurements. It was determined that generalized, extensive simulations have comparable prediction capabilities as shorter, more comprehensive simulations. Generally, this study aimed to quantify the loss of detail in long‐term simulations and to determine if extended simulations can provide accurate, continuous upstream solar wind conditions when there is a lack of in situ measurements.Plain Language SummaryIf we ever have a manned mission to Mars, one of the numerous concerns would be space weather conditions and their effects on spacecraft in flight. One particular element of space weather that we like to focus on is solar wind: plasma that is continuously emitted from the Sun. Solar wind can effect communication between Earth and spacecraft, GPS services, and other vital elements of space travel. We therefore want a good understanding of space weather and want to forecast conditions before ever traveling there. Currently, there are not always means to directly measure solar wind, so we rely on numerical models. In this study, we used the model called WSA‐ENLIL+Cone to compare its solar wind measurements and one of our spacecraft orbiting Mars to see how well it did and to see if we can rely on it for solar wind forecasts. As it turns out, the model can be used for forecasting baseline values of different solar wind parameters, for example, temperature, even with limited information. We show in this study that the WSA‐ENLIL+Cone model allows us to forecast solar wind conditions and helps us to understand what is going on at that seemingly barren planet.Key PointsGeneralized, extensive WEC model simulations provide analogous confidence levels and results as detailed, relatively short simulationsWSA‐ENLIL+Cone model succeeds at predicting fast solar wind radial velocityPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142959/1/swe20547.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142959/2/swe20547_am.pd