De l'importance de la nature des chocs pétroliers

This article studies the impact of oil shocks on the macroeconomy in two ways insofar unexploited in the literature. The analysis is conducted at the global level, and it explicitly accounts for the potentially changing nature of oil shocks. Constructing an original world gdp series and grouping oil shocks according to their nature, this article finds that the nature of oil shocks has been central to the reversal of their impact between 1970-1992 and 1992-2006. Oil supply shocks have negatively impacted world growth while oil demand shocks have been procyclical. This result is robust for the us. Furthermore, in the us case, endogenous monetary policy is shown to have no countercyclical effects in the context of an oil demand shock. Classification JEL : E32, Q43