Producing near-real-time intelligence: predicting the world of tomorrow

The complexity and dynamics of current military operations demand reliable and up-to-date intelligence and in particular near-real-time threat assessment. This paper explores the potential of operational analysis techniques in supporting military personnel in processing information from different sources, in order to constantly carry out near-real time threat assessments of current situations and future developments. It introduces a near-real time threat assessment approach that integrates Bayesian Belief Networks and spatio-temporal modelling. This approach has been implemented in a near-real-time intelligence demonstrator to support threat assessment during operations