Modelling the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in the Netherlands

This paper describes a model that predicts the total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Netherlands up to 2035 that was developed at the request of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. METHOD The model uses learning curves to implement cost developments regarding battery, drivetrain, charging infrastructure, energy and residual value of different drivetrains. It uses cars with three types of luxury levels and drivetrains. RESULTS EVs are found to quickly get a lower TCO which has the potential to drive a quick and disruptive transition to clean cars. LIMITATIONS The model does not consider the supply of EVs or batteries. Charging infrastructure could become a bottleneck. Users differ in how resistant to change they are and many will not adopt EVs, not even when they have a lower total cost of ownership